Match Info

Super League - Round 16

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium (Pamekasan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Indonesia	Indosiar, Vidio


	Madura United		Persebaya Surabaya

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.05	2.62	Watch
	2.44	3.42	2.72	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.63
	2.44	3.13	2.62	Watch
	2.42	3.1	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.67)	3.16 ↓ (3.27)	2.67 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Madura United
37.1%

Draw
28.8%

Persebaya Surabaya
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

28.4%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

28.2%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madura United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Persebaya Surabaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Madura United than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Persebaya Surabaya than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	50%	33.3%

Madura United - Persebaya Surabaya Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Madura United will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Persebaya will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Persebaya (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Persebaya (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Saputra M. (G) 45. Hidayat T. 3. Monteiro P. 95. Mendonca 6. Ruxi 17. Sitanggang P. 5. Palic K. 25. Afrisal R. 4. Wehrmann J. 87. Balotelli 11. Lulinha (C)	21. Ari E. (G) 2. Catur A. 24. Lelis L. S. 5. Mitrevski R. 91. Tumbas D. 53. Irianto R. 88. Raickovic M. 26. Wicaksono D. 7. Rivera F. 10. Bruno (C) 99. Diego Mauricio
Substitutes
77. Alesandro F. 21. Diky M. (G) 36. Ilhamsyah 18. Kemaluddin M. 99. Kusuma A. 69. Maulidino M. 24. Muslihuddin T. 7. Nufiandani A. 44. Nurdiansyah 12. Rizki F. 68. Rusadi A. 37. Wehrmann J.	33. Araya K. 81. Baihaqi M. 4. Dimov D. 8. Fernando O. 77. Malik R. 18. May R. 11. Perovic M. 23. Raditya K. 52. Ramadhani A. (G) 9. Rizky D. 12. Suaib A. 15. Tata M.
Coaches
Biasi Parreira C. E.	Tavares B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Mendonca 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Afrisal R. ↓, Kusuma A. ↑,
46', Wicaksono D. ↓, Malik R. ↑,
57', Bruno 🟨,
65', Diego Mauricio ↓, Perovic M. ↑,
66', Mendonca 🟨,
71', Irianto R. ↓, Baihaqi M. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Bruno ⚽, Malik R. (A),
80', Balotelli ↓, Ilhamsyah ↑,
84', Sitanggang P. ↓, Muslihuddin T. ↑,
87', Bruno ↓, May R. ↑,
90', Wehrmann J. ↓, Alesandro F. ↑,
90+6', Perovic M. 🟨,
90+6', Perovic M. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Madura United won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Madura United won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 23:36. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Madura United won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:23. (average 1.6:2.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Madura United	3	3	0	0	7:2	5	9
10	Persebaya	3	1	2	0	3:2	1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Madura United - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 34.77%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Madura United
Indonesian Super League
28.12.25	Madura United - Semen Padang	5:1 ✺
23.12.25	Arema - Madura United	2:2 ✺
30.11.25	Madura United - Persib Bandung	1:4 ✺
22.11.25	Borneo Samarinda - Madura United	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Madura United - Persijap Jepara	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WTLLW
- Persebaya Surabaya
Indonesian Super League
28.12.25	Persebaya Surabaya - Persijap Jepara	4:0 ✺
20.12.25	Persebaya Surabaya - Borneo Samarinda	2:2 ✺
06.12.25	PSM Makassar - Persebaya Surabaya	1:1 ✺
28.11.25	Bhayangkara - Persebaya Surabaya	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Persebaya Surabaya - Arema	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Indonesian Super League
20.04.25	Persebaya Surabaya - Madura United	1:0
02.12.24	Madura United - Persebaya Surabaya	1:2
13.03.24	Persebaya Surabaya - Madura United	0:0
17.09.23	Madura United - Persebaya Surabaya	3:0
29.01.23	Madura United - Persebaya Surabaya	0:2
14.08.22	Persebaya Surabaya - Madura United	2:2
28.02.22	Madura United - Persebaya Surabaya	1:2

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