Match Info

Date: 23 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Mafra		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	3.8
	1.85	3.3	3.7
	1.83	3.4	3.85
	1.87	3.45	3.95
	1.92	3.64	4.21
	1.88	3.2	3.8
	1.83	3.48	3.94
	1.87	3.45	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.16)	3.4 ↑ (3)	3.9 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
49.4%

Draw
27%

Estrela da Amadora
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

30.1%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

29.1%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mafra's performance.

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mafra that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	6.7%	26.7%

Mafra - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Mafra will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Estrela will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mafra: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 14 and 6).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Mafra could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Mafra will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Mafra won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Mafra won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
18.10.22	Benfica B - Mafra	5:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Mafra - Marítimo	4:2 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
09.10.22	Mafra - Tondela	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
02.10.22	União de Santarém - Mafra	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
17.09.22	Académico de Viseu - Mafra	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWTWL
- Estrela da Amadora
Portuguese Liga 2
15.10.22	Estrela da Amadora - Covilhã	2:1 ✺
08.10.22	Torreense - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
01.10.22	Oliveira Hospital - Estrela da Amadora	2:1 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
18.09.22	Estrela da Amadora - Leixões	2:2 ✺
12.09.22	Estrela da Amadora - Académico de Viseu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
18.01.22	Mafra - Estrela da Amadora	2:2
08.08.21	Estrela da Amadora - Mafra	0:2

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