Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 5

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Campo Estrela (Evora)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Lusitano GC		Académica Coimbra

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.1	2.4
	4.00	3.81	1.78	Watch
	2.64	3.1	2.46
	2.3	3.15	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.87)	3.29 ↑ (3.2)	2.35 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitano GC
32%

Draw
28.3%

Académica Coimbra
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

29.1%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

28.7%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitano GC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Académica Coimbra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Académica Coimbra than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Lusitano GC - Académica Coimbra Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Académica (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Académica (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Martins D. (G) 53. Carvalho E. 4. Santana C. (C) 5. Palancha T. 25. Pinto J. 18. Dionisio S. M. 10. Aguas M. 8. Baptista T. 30. Davou S. 29. Isnaba G. 11. Almara F.	98. Alves C. (G) 15. Kaka 3. Teixeira R. 4. Silva G. 7. Tiago Andre 6. Montez A. 5. Silva L. (C) 8. Pereira F. 9. Barbosa N. 18. Cuba 28. Cascavel
Substitutes
14. Cande B. 88. Doukoure H. 80. Gomes A. 9. Lopes D. 44. Lourenco M. 37. Monteiro R. 7. Sequeira G. 77. Sonhi Y. 1. Sousa J. (G)	21. Candeias D. 12. Gabriel Passos 1. Macedo N. (G) 10. Pereira N. 93. Souza B. 14. Triana C. 27. Vitor G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Santana C. 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Silva L. (Pen),
30', Dionisio S. M. 🟨,
33', Silva G. 🟨,
38', Pereira F. 🟨,
45', Teixeira R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pereira F. ↓, Gabriel Passos ↑,
55', Martins D. 🟨,
57', 0 - 2, Silva L. (Pen),
58', Dionisio S. M. ↓, Sequeira G. ↑,
58', Davou S. ↓, Lopes D. ↑,
64', Barbosa N. ↓, Souza B. ↑,
64', Carvalho E. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
71', Cascavel ↓, Triana C. ↑,
77', Isnaba G. ↓, Sonhi Y. ↑,
81', Cuba ↓, Candeias D. ↑,
87', Montez A. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 5 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Académica has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitano GC
Portuguese Liga 3
04.10.25	Lusitano GC - Amora	3:1 ✺
28.09.25	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Lusitano GC - Serpa	1:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.25	Lusitano GC - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Belenenses - Lusitano GC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTWLL
- Académica Coimbra
Portuguese Liga 3
05.10.25	Académica Coimbra - Covilhã	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Académica Coimbra - Atlético CP	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	4:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Académica Coimbra - Os Marialvas	0:1 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
24.08.25	Mafra - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWLL

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