Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 19

Date: 26 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Referee: Torres M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan
Portugal	Sport TV+


	Mafra		Oliveirense

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.5	3.9
	1.8	3.25	3.8
	1.87	3.4	4.2
	1.94	3.45	4.48
	1.86	3.38	4.32	Watch
	1.85	3.25	3.9
	1.83	3.54	4.22
	1.87	3.4	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.84)	3.4 ↓ (3.53)	4.13 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
50.1%

Draw
27.4%

Oliveirense
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

26.4%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.6%

25.9%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Oliveirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	38.5%	23.1%

Mafra - Oliveirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Mafra will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Oliveirense will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mafra: 12% – 65%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fraisl M. (G) 5. Beni D. 4. Passi B. 29. Rossi R. 15. Guilherme (C) 3. Chriso 20. Maiga Y. 10. Fale M. 9. Nibe A. 19. Iheanacho S. 90. Etim F.	31. Ribeiro R. (G) 25. Casimiro 3. Noga G. 75. Namora N. 26. Bastos L. 99. Sabino 8. Santos A. (C) 17. Nagata K. 7. Candeias D. 70. Ze Manuel 79. Silva J.
Substitutes
95. Bryan 16. Djabi A. 17. Kolawole J. 22. Lemos F. (G) 8. Lucas Gabriel 35. Monteiro V. 6. Pereira P. 21. Precatado J. 32. Rodrigo Freitas	14. Bruno Silva 18. Caballero M. 1. Dabo R. (G) 13. Junior M. 54. Martins S. 29. Miyata I. 56. Schurrle 30. Takahashi T. 11. Veiga T.
Coaches
Ferreira T.	Filo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Passi B. ↓, Rodrigo Freitas ↑,
42', Beni D. 🟨,
42', Sabino 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Noga G. ↓, Junior M. ↑,
63', Rossi R. 🟨,
65', Maiga Y. 🟨,
68', Fale M. ↓, Kolawole J. ↑,
68', Maiga Y. ↓, Rochez B. ↑,
68', Silva J. ↓, Veiga T. ↑,
68', Nagata K. ↓, Schurrle ↑,
69', Beni D. ↓, Pereira P. ↑,
79', Iheanacho S. ↓, Lucas Gabriel ↑,
88', Candeias D. ↓, Bruno Silva ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mafra won 1.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

In this match Mafra is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Mafra won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 21:21 (average 1.6:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Mafra won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:9 (average 2:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
19.01.25	Paços de Ferreira - Mafra	2:1 ✺
05.01.25	Torreense - Mafra	1:0 ✺
29.12.24	Mafra - Feirense	0:0 ✺
20.12.24	Leixões - Mafra	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Mafra - Benfica B	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLTLW
- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese Liga 2
20.01.25	Oliveirense - Penafiel	2:2 ✺
05.01.25	Oliveirense - Felgueiras	0:3 ✺
29.12.24	Marítimo - Oliveirense	1:2 ✺
22.12.24	Oliveirense - Leiria	1:2 ✺
16.12.24	Académico de Viseu - Oliveirense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
17.08.24	Oliveirense - Mafra	0:0
27.04.24	Mafra - Oliveirense	3:3
17.12.23	Oliveirense - Mafra	1:3
29.01.23	Mafra - Oliveirense	2:3
06.08.22	Oliveirense - Mafra	3:1
18.04.21	Oliveirense - Mafra	0:0
20.12.20	Mafra - Oliveirense	2:2

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