Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 25

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Mafra		Porto B

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.2	3.1
	2.2	3	2.95
	2.31	3.15	3.1
	2.38	3.1	3.39
	2.31	3.08	3.25	Watch
	2.25	3	3
	2.26	3.26	3.16	Watch
	2.31	3.15	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.19)	3.12 ↓ (3.17)	3.13 ↓ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
40.6%

Draw
29.8%

Porto B
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

29.2%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

29%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Porto B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto B than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Mafra - Porto B Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Mafra will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Porto B will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mafra: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fraisl M. (G) 14. Alves K. 32. Rodrigo Freitas 29. Rossi R. 15. Guilherme (C) 3. Chriso 80. Goncalves V. 90. Etim F. 9. Nibe A. 35. Monteiro V. 95. Rochez B.	94. Portugal S. (G) 45. Joao Moreira 73. Bras G. 44. Felipe Silva 84. Cunha M. 2. Castro 68. Oliveira A. 49. Sousa G. 92. Teixeira J. 43. Melnichenko T. 79. Vonic L.
Substitutes
24. Camara M. 16. Djabi A. 10. Fale M. 19. Iheanacho S. 7. Matos R. 21. Precatado J. 39. Souza A. 2. Texel P. 30. Ugboh M. (G)	59. Andrade T. 87. Caicedo B. 95. Cande A. 62. Fernandes R. 64. Gomes L. 80. Henrique Kaio 66. Lima B. 91. Ribeiro G. (G) 76. Rodrigues D.
Coaches
Alves P.	Brandao J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Oliveira A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Chriso ↓, Iheanacho S. ↑,
60', Monteiro V. ↓, Fale M. ↑,
66', Teixeira J. ↓, Caicedo B. ↑,
66', Oliveira A. ↓, Fernandes R. ↑,
70', Rochez B. ↓, Matos R. ↑,
72', Sousa G. ↓, Andrade T. ↑,
80', Rodrigo Freitas 🟨,
85', Melnichenko T. ↓, Lima B. ↑,
90+4', Goncalves V. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mafra won 1.

Mafra is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Porto B is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Mafra could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Mafra will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Mafra won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 18:23 (average 1.3:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Mafra won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:11 (average 1.7:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
01.03.25	Alverca - Mafra	2:0 ✺
22.02.25	Mafra - Vizela	1:4 ✺
15.02.25	Tondela - Mafra	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Mafra - Chaves	0:0 ✺
Atlantic Cup
02.02.25	Brentford B - Mafra	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLLTW
- Porto B
Portuguese Liga 2
02.03.25	Porto B - Marítimo	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Felgueiras - Porto B	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Porto B - Penafiel	3:2 ✺
09.02.25	Leiria - Porto B	0:0 ✺
01.02.25	Porto B - Académico de Viseu	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
23.10.24	Porto B - Mafra	1:1
11.02.24	Porto B - Mafra	1:1
02.09.23	Mafra - Porto B	2:1
05.03.23	Porto B - Mafra	1:1
10.09.22	Mafra - Porto B	0:1
12.02.22	Mafra - Porto B	3:2
12.09.21	Porto B - Mafra	3:1

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