Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 22

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV7


	Tondela		Mafra

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.25	4.5
	1.85	3.1	4.2
	1.85	3.42	4.83
	1.83	3.32	4.62	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4
	1.82	3.44	4.47	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (1.88)	3.25 ↑ (3.19)	4.4 ↑ (4.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
50.4%

Draw
28.5%

Mafra
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

28.6%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

27.3%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Tondela - Mafra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto 5. Afonso J. 34. Alves R. (C) 21. Pedro Maranhao 97. Cicero 6. Ceitil A. 18. Talocha 70. Moudjatovic M. 17. Roberto 7. Xavier	1. Fraisl M. (G) 14. Alves K. 32. Rodrigo Freitas 29. Rossi R. 15. Guilherme (C) 3. Chriso 66. Capitao D. 10. Fale M. 80. Goncalves V. 19. Iheanacho S. 90. Etim F.
Substitutes
23. Cascavel 11. Costinha 26. Cunha N. 43. Joao Cesco 48. Manso T. 60. Maviram E. 9. Miro 1. Souza G. (G) 8. Tavares H.	60. Barros G. 16. Djabi A. 7. Matos R. 35. Monteiro V. 9. Nibe A. 55. Pata I. 95. Rochez B. 39. Souza A. 30. Ugboh M. (G)
Coaches
Pinto L.	Alves P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Xavier (Pen),
40', Moudjatovic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Guilherme 🟨,
58', Fraisl M. 🟨,
58', 1 - 0, Alves R. (Pen),
62', Moudjatovic M. ↓, Manso T. ↑,
62', Xavier ↓, Costinha ↑,
64', Fale M. ↓, Monteiro V. ↑,
64', Goncalves V. ↓, Nibe A. ↑,
71', Roberto ↓, Miro ↑,
74', Capitao D. ↓, Rochez B. ↑,
76', Costinha 🟨,
81', Iheanacho S. ↓, Matos R. ↑,
86', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Maviram E. ↑,
86', Bebeto ↓, Tavares H. ↑,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tondela won 3.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Mafra could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Tondela is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Tondela won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 15:6 (average 2.1:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Tondela won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:3 (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Portuguese Liga 2
08.02.25	Felgueiras - Tondela	1:0 ✺
01.02.25	Tondela - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
26.01.25	Porto B - Tondela	2:2 ✺
19.01.25	Tondela - Marítimo	0:0 ✺
12.01.25	Alverca - Tondela	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWTTT
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
09.02.25	Mafra - Chaves	0:0 ✺
Atlantic Cup
02.02.25	Brentford B - Mafra	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
01.02.25	Portimonense - Mafra	2:0 ✺
26.01.25	Mafra - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
19.01.25	Paços de Ferreira - Mafra	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
15.09.24	Mafra - Tondela	0:4
17.02.24	Mafra - Tondela	1:3
16.09.23	Tondela - Mafra	2:1
19.03.23	Tondela - Mafra	1:2
09.10.22	Mafra - Tondela	1:1
Taça de Portugal
20.04.22	Mafra - Tondela	1:1
03.03.22	Tondela - Mafra	3:0

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