Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 21

Date: 9 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Referee: Macedo C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Mafra		Chaves

	1	X	2
	3	2.9	2.35
	2.8	2.9	2.35
	2.95	2.85	2.42
	3.22	3	2.54
	3.11	2.95	2.47	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.4
	3.1	2.99	2.43	Watch
	2.95	2.85	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.88)	2.92 ↓ (3.08)	2.42 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
30.6%

Draw
31.5%

Chaves
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

30.3%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

30.3%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Chaves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Mafra - Chaves Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chaves: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fraisl M. (G) 14. Alves K. 32. Rodrigo Freitas 29. Rossi R. 15. Guilherme (C) 3. Chriso 66. Capitao D. 7. Matos R. 80. Goncalves V. 19. Iheanacho S. 90. Etim F.	1. Vozinha (G) 15. Carraca (C) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 40. Pius J. 5. Romero A. 8. Pinho P. 14. Wilson R. 26. Soro A. 20. Ricardo A. 88. Pina R. 29. Platiny
Substitutes
5. Beni D. 16. Djabi A. 10. Fale M. 20. Maiga Y. 35. Monteiro V. 9. Nibe A. 55. Pata I. 95. Rochez B. 30. Ugboh M. (G)	95. Ayongo P. 13. Fernandes V. 23. Gomes R. 12. Ktatau 31. Moura R. (G) 25. Pedro Tiba 19. Tiago Almeida 9. Tiago Reis 21. Wellington Carvalho
Coaches
Alves P.	Alves M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Matos R. ↓, Fale M. ↑,
68', Pina R. ↓, Wellington Carvalho ↑,
68', Chriso ↓, Nibe A. ↑,
73', Pinho P. ↓, Gomes R. ↑,
73', Ricardo A. ↓, Ktatau ↑,
73', Soro A. ↓, Pedro Tiba ↑,
78', Iheanacho S. ↓, Monteiro V. ↑,
78', Goncalves V. ↓, Maiga Y. ↑,
81', Platiny ↓, Ayongo P. ↑,
85', Etim F. ↓, Rochez B. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mafra won 3.

Mafra is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Chaves is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Mafra could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Mafra have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Mafra won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 10:9 (average 1:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Mafra won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2:4 (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Atlantic Cup
02.02.25	Brentford B - Mafra	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
01.02.25	Portimonense - Mafra	2:0 ✺
26.01.25	Mafra - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
19.01.25	Paços de Ferreira - Mafra	2:1 ✺
05.01.25	Torreense - Mafra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WLTLL
- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
02.02.25	Chaves - Marítimo	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Leixões - Chaves	0:0 ✺
17.01.25	Chaves - Académico de Viseu	3:0 ✺
12.01.25	Leiria - Chaves	1:1 ✺
04.01.25	Chaves - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
01.09.24	Chaves - Mafra	0:3
Portuguese League Cup
16.12.22	Chaves - Mafra	1:2
Portuguese Liga 2
09.04.22	Mafra - Chaves	0:1
27.11.21	Chaves - Mafra	0:1
01.05.21	Chaves - Mafra	1:1
03.01.21	Mafra - Chaves	1:2
01.02.20	Mafra - Chaves	1:0

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