Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 11

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Mafra		Trofense

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.05	3.4
	2.11	3.28	3.66
	2.09	3.22	3.57	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.4
	2.04	3.06	3.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.08)	3.14 ↑ (3.04)	3.51 ↓ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
44.8%

Draw
29.1%

Trofense
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

30.1%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

29.6%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Trofense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Mafra - Trofense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lemos F. (G) 3. Alves K. 2. Camara M. 19. Iheanacho S. 20. Maiga Y. 7. Matos R. 90. Moreira R. 85. Neves L. 9. Niang M. 46. Sambu B. (C) 52. Xico	12. Teopisto (G) 4. Basto H. 18. Diagne O. 19. Diarra M. 10. Feliz 29. Joel (C) 79. Lopes L. 89. Nuninho 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 78. Ruca 44. Saldanha F.
Substitutes
39. Andrey 66. Ferreira J. 8. Goncalves V. 30. Ninte M. 6. Pinto R. 4. Queta M. 13. Raposo C. 33. Silva P. (G) 96. So S.	15. Borges F. 6. Daniel J. 9. Hachadi K. 26. Lobo G. 2. Oliveira J. 11. Paciencia V. 8. Reko Silva 13. Silva N. (G) 30. Welisson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Joel 🟨,
43', Camara M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 1 - 0, Iheanacho S. ⚽, Matos R. (A),
58', Nuninho ↓, Paciencia V. ↑,
58', Feliz ↓, Reko Silva ↑,
58', Joel ↓, Oliveira J. ↑,
71', Matos R. ↓, Pinto R. ↑,
71', Lopes L. ↓, Lobo G. ↑,
82', Diagne O. ↓, Daniel J. ↑,
83', Neves L. ↓, Andrey ↑,
83', Niang M. ↓, Ninte M. ↑,
90', Iheanacho S. ↓, So S. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 6 and 7)

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Mafra will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mafra won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
19.04.26	Mafra - Amarante	1:4 ✺
11.04.26	Varzim - Mafra	0:2 ✺
03.04.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Mafra - Belenenses	1:4 ✺
15.03.26	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWWLL
- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
18.04.26	Trofense - Varzim	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	União de Santarém - Trofense	0:1 ✺
03.04.26	Trofense - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Trofense - Académica Coimbra	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Trofense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
27.02.26	Trofense - Mafra	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
28.05.23	Trofense - Mafra	1:2
21.01.23	Mafra - Trofense	1:0
20.02.22	Trofense - Mafra	1:3
18.09.21	Mafra - Trofense	0:0

Mafra - Trofense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide