Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Mafra		Vitoria Guimarães B

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	2.98
	2.16	3.05	2.78
	2.27	3.22	3.15	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3
	2.29	3.33	3.02	Watch
	2.08	3.1	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.09)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)	3.09 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
41%

Draw
29.4%

Vitoria Guimarães B
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

29.8%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

32.2%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Vitoria Guimarães B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mafra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães B than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vitoria Guimarães B, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mafra - Vitoria Guimarães B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Silva P. (G) 3. Alves K. 2. Camara M. 29. Rossi R. 90. Moreira R. 39. Andrey 46. Sambu B. 19. Iheanacho S. 30. Ninte M. 9. Niang M. 7. Matos R.	99. Guilherme (G) 96. Rodrigo Silva 75. Oliveira A. 76. Alcobia 82. Dias F. 80. Rocha R. 50. Zeega 56. Verdi S. 32. Tepe M. 33. Opara E. 88. Nogueira M.
Substitutes
10. Fati E. 66. Ferreira J. 8. Goncalves V. 1. Lemos F. (G) 6. Pinto R. 27. Precatado J. 23. Serra S. 4. Silva P. 96. So S.	67. Bruma 97. Carreira D. 79. Carvalho D. 60. Deivid M. 57. Martins J. 73. Miguel Vaz 93. Rika 71. Silva D. (G) 95. Vunge J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Nogueira M. ⚽, Rodrigo Silva (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Oliveira A. 🟥,
57', Opara E. ↓, Rika ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Andrey ⚽,
64', Ninte M. ↓, Fati E. ↑,
66', Rossi R. 🟨,
69', Rika 🟨,
77', Verdi S. ↓, Carvalho D. ↑,
77', Tepe M. ↓, Miguel Vaz ↑,
88', Matos R. ↓, Goncalves V. ↑,
90', Sambu B. 🟨,
90+3', Zeega 🟨,
90+8', 1 - 2, Nogueira M. ⚽,
90+9', Nogueira M. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Mafra has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guimarães B is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Guimarães B may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Mafra has had a series of away games.

Mafra could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mafra won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
04.03.26	União de Santarém - Mafra	3:1 ✺
27.02.26	Trofense - Mafra	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Amarante - Mafra	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Mafra - Varzim	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Atlético CP - Mafra	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LTLWW
- Vitoria Guimarães B
Portuguese Liga 3
28.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	União de Santarém - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
06.02.26	Académica Coimbra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Sanjoanense - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
28.01.19	Vitoria Guimarães B - Mafra	1:2
18.08.18	Mafra - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:0
10.04.16	Vitoria Guimarães B - Mafra	1:0
21.11.15	Mafra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:1

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