Match Info

National League South - Round 40

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday


	Hornchurch		Hemel Hempstead Town

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.5	3.2
	2.05	3.35	3.25
	2.08	3.38	3.47
	2.05	3.47	3.41	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.4
	2.02	3.26	3.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.08)	3.36 ↓ (3.6)	3.35 ↑ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
45.3%

Draw
27.3%

Hemel Hempstead Town
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

25.8%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

26.6%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Hemel Hempstead Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Hornchurch - Hemel Hempstead Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Campbell R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Hornchurch is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Hornchurch won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Hornchurch won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of English National League South for now

Hemel Hempstead: 2.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10:10	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Hemel Hempstead Town - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 29.64%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
14.03.26	Bath City - Hornchurch	2:2 ✺
10.03.26	Horsham - Hornchurch	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Hornchurch - Slough Town	2:3 ✺
03.03.26	Hornchurch - Salisbury	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Hornchurch - Worthing	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TWLWW
- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
14.03.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Totton	2:0 ✺
10.03.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chippenham Town	3:2 ✺
07.03.26	Farnborough - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:3 ✺
28.02.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels	1:0 ✺
23.02.26	Chelmsford City - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
02.12.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Hornchurch	0:4
10.03.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Hornchurch	3:1
05.11.24	Hornchurch - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0
English FA Trophy
19.10.13	Hemel Hempstead Town - Hornchurch	3:2

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