Match Info

KAZAKHSTAN: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 17

Date: 5 October 2023, Thursday

Location: Stadion Alpamys Batyr (Atakent)


	Makhtaaral		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	2.6
	2.45	3.4	2.65	Watch
	2.16	3.39	2.63
	2.6	3.1	2.5
	2.5	2.92	2.95	Watch
	2.5	3.05	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.85)	3.16 ↓ (3.18)	2.68 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Makhtaaral
37.3%

Draw
28.8%

Tobol Kostanay
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

28.7%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

28.2%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Makhtaaral has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Makhtaaral's performance.

Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tobol Kostanay might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Makhtaaral than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Makhtaaral that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tobol Kostanay could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Makhtaaral - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Makhtaaral will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tobol will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Kalmykov N. (G) 12. Braga V. 96. Charleston 3. Dairov N. 23. Dobay A. 81. Karimov R. (C) 6. Parunashvili L. 53. Sebaihi B. 8. Shramchenko A. 13. Tursynbay S. 5. Yudenkov R.	12. Busurmanov S. (G) 3. Asrankulov R. 11. Chesnokov I. 8. Deble S. 6. Ilic J. 30. Mladjovic B. 19. Mrkaic M. 5. Semchenkov D. 13. Zabelin P. 17. Zhakupov T. 14. Zharynbetov S. (C)
Substitutes
21. Aripov D. 31. Duyseshov S. 1. Hayrapetyan A. (G) 30. Kone D. 19. Kosmynin V. 9. Mukhamed A. 7. Newadzi S. 55. Potapov E. 91. Zhangaliev Z. (G) 11. Zhangylyshbay T.	51. Galym B. 70. Ivanovic I. 24. Kairov B. 18. Kireenko P. 23. Konovalov I. (G) 28. Melikhov Y. (G) 4. Rogac I. 97. Valiullin R. 7. Zhumashev Z.
Coaches
Nurdauletov K.	Curcic M.

Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Makhtaaral won 3.

Recent matches Makhtaaral is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Tobol in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Tobol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Makhtaaral won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Makhtaaral won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Makhtaaral
Kazakh Premier League
01.10.23	Atyrau - Makhtaaral	2:0 ✺
27.09.23	Ordabasy - Makhtaaral	1:0 ✺
23.09.23	Makhtaaral - Aksu	2:0 ✺
15.09.23	Kaspiy Aktau - Makhtaaral	0:2 ✺
26.08.23	Makhtaaral - Shakhter Karagandy	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LLWWW
- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
30.09.23	Shakhter Karagandy - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
27.09.23	Kyzylzhar - Tobol Kostanay	1:1 ✺
24.09.23	Tobol Kostanay - Zhetysu	1:2 ✺
16.09.23	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.08.23	Viktoria Plzeň - Tobol Kostanay	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
21.05.23	Tobol Kostanay - Makhtaaral	1:0
23.10.22	Makhtaaral - Tobol Kostanay	2:1
Kazakh Cup
31.07.22	Makhtaaral - Tobol Kostanay	1:0
24.07.22	Tobol Kostanay - Makhtaaral	1:4
Kazakh Premier League
22.05.22	Tobol Kostanay - Makhtaaral	4:2
Kazakh Cup
01.08.21	Makhtaaral - Tobol Kostanay	4:0
25.07.21	Tobol Kostanay - Makhtaaral	3:4

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