Match Info

Africa Cup of Nations - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Ibn Batouta (Tanger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Tolo TV
Africa	AfroSport TV Africa, Azam Sports 1, CANAL+ CAN, DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport Maximo 360
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Angola	TPA 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 1, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 4, beIN Sports MENA Max 4, beIN Sports MENA Max 4
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	BandSports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Cameroon	Canal 2 International
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chad	Tele Tchad
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Win play, Win Sports
Cote-d-ivoire	NCI, RTI 3
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	ERT 2, ERT Sports 2
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Sportitalia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Madagascar	MATV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Mali	ORTM
Mauritius	MBC 11
Mexico	Claro Sports, FOX One, Marca Claro
Morocco	Arryadia TNT, SNRT Live
Mozambique	TV Miramar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus
Norway	VG+
Portugal	Sport TV2
Republic-of-the-congo	Tele Congo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SABC 2, SABC Plus, SuperSport PSL
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	Exxen
Uganda	UBC TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	4Seven, Channel 4, E4
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Zambia	ZNBC 1


	Mali		Senegal

	1	X	2
	7	3.4	1.62	Watch
	5.75	3.6	1.6
	6.6	3.45	1.65	Watch
	6.91	3.47	1.63	Watch
	6	3.1	1.67
	6.72	3.47	1.71	Watch
	6.66	3.4	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.52 ↑ (5.08)	3.41 ↑ (3.26)	1.64 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mali
14.5%

Draw
27.8%

Senegal
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.6%

29.1%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.3%

28.7%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Senegal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Senegal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mali than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Senegal than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.1%	24.5%	69.4%

Mali - Senegal Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Mali will win (votes: 2 - 4.4%). Senegal will win (votes: 31 - 68.9%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Senegal: 55.4% – 82.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Mali (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Senegal will win (16 of 21 users predict this - 76.19%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Mali (votes: 1 - 4.5%). Senegal (votes: 16 - 72.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 22.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Diarra D. (G) Young Africans 2. Traore H. Paris FC 25. Camara O. Angers 5. Diaby A. Grasshoppers 28. Gassama N. Baltika 11. Coulibaly L. Lecce 23. Dieng A. Al Ahly 10. Bissouma Y. (C) Tottenham 4. Haidara A. Lens 17. Sinayoko L. Auxerre 20. Sangare M. Lens	16. Mendy E. (G) Al Ahli SC 15. Diatta K. Monaco 3. Koulibaly K. (C) Al Hilal 19. Niakhate M. Lyon 25. Diouf M. West Ham 7. Diarra H. Sunderland 5. Gueye I. Everton 26. Gueye P. Villarreal 13. Ndiaye I. Everton 20. Diallo H. Metz 10. Mane S. Al Nassr
Substitutes
12. Camara M. Al-Sadd 14. Camara M. Laval 3. Dante A. Arouca 27. Diakite G. Lausanne 1. Diawara I. (G) Sirius 13. Doucoure F. Le Havre 19. Doumbia K. Brest 8. Doumbia M. Al Ittihad 18. Doumbia M. Watford 15. Fofana M. New England Revolution 7. Nene D. Fenerbahce 6. Niakate S. Braga 22. Samassa M. (G) Laval 24. Sissoko I. Bochum 9. Toure E. B. Besiktas	8. Camara L. Monaco 6. Ciss P. Rayo Vallecano 9. Dia B. Lazio 23. Diaw M. (G) Le Havre 1. Diouf Y. (G) Nice 11. Jackson N. Bayern Munich 14. Jakobs I. Galatasaray 27. Mbaye I. PSG 24. Mendy A. Nice 12. Ndiaye C. Samsunspor 21. Sabaly C. Metz 18. Sarr I. Crystal Palace 2. Sarr M. Strasbourg 17. Sarr P. M. Tottenham 4. Seck A. Maccabi Haifa
Coaches
Saintfiet T.	Thiaw P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Bissouma Y. 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Ndiaye I. ⚽,
29', Gueye P. 🟨,
45+3', Bissouma Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Haidara A. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
56', Diarra H. 🟨,
61', Diallo H. 🟨,
62', Diarra H. ↓, Ciss P. ↑,
62', Gueye P. ↓, Camara L. ↑,
69', Dieng A. ↓, Diakite G. ↑,
75', Ndiaye I. ↓, Mbaye I. ↑,
75', Diallo H. ↓, Ndiaye C. ↑,
82', Sangare M. ↓, Doumbia K. ↑,
82', Sinayoko L. ↓, Toure E. B. ↑,
82', Coulibaly L. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
83', Mbaye I. 🟨,
90', Traore H. 🟨,
90+3', Koulibaly K. 🟨,

Preview

Mali has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Senegal is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Senegal is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Mali: Coulibaly W. (Red Card) Diarra G. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Senegal: Camara I. (Muscle Injury) Diao A. (Thigh Injury) Niang O. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mali: Coulibaly L. (Injury) Niakate S. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mali won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mali
Africa Cup of Nations
03.01.26	Mali - Tunisia	2:1 penalties ✺
29.12.25	Comoros - Mali	0:0 ✺
26.12.25	Morocco - Mali	1:1 ✺
22.12.25	Mali - Zambia	1:1 ✺
Friendly
18.11.25	Jordan - Mali	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WTTTT
- Senegal
Africa Cup of Nations
03.01.26	Senegal - Sudan	3:1 ✺
30.12.25	Benin - Senegal	0:3 ✺
27.12.25	Senegal - D.R. Congo	1:1 ✺
23.12.25	Senegal - Botswana	3:0 ✺
Friendly
15.11.25	Brazil - Senegal	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

WAFU Cup of Nations
09.10.19	Senegal - Mali	2:0
Friendly
26.03.19	Senegal - Mali	2:1
05.03.14	Senegal - Mali	1:1

Mali - Senegal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide