Match Info

CAF Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium (Pretoria)

Referee: Artan O. A. (Som)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 1, DStv Now, SuperSport Football Plus
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	SportKlub 7
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Kenya	Gotv
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Singapore	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	SportKlub 6
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 4
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Mamelodi Sundowns		Espérance ST

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.9	3.6
	2.08	3.05	3.7
	2.14	3	3.89
	1.85	3.13	4.79	Watch
	2.05	2.8	3.75
	2.15	3.07	3.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.81)	2.99 ↑ (2.9)	3.89 ↓ (4.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mamelodi Sundowns
45%

Draw
31%

Espérance ST
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

31.3%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.6%

30.4%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mamelodi Sundowns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mamelodi Sundowns's form might have worsened.

Espérance ST has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Espérance ST's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mamelodi Sundowns than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mamelodi Sundowns, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Espérance ST than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Espérance ST, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Mamelodi Sundowns - Espérance ST Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Mamelodi Sundowns will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Williams R. (C) 25. Mudau K. 3. Ndamane K. 24. Cupido K. 29. Lunga D. 8. Adams J. 27. Morena T. 4. Mokoena T. 17. Matthews T. 12. Leon B. 9. Arthur Sales	32. Ben Said B. (G) 23. Keita I. 6. Jelassi H. 15. Tougai M. 20. Ben Hamida M. (C) 8. Tka H. 14. Ogbelu O. 7. Boualia K. 10. Yan Sasse 21. Konate A. 22. Danho F.
Substitutes
11. Allende M. 15. Aubaas B. J. 37. Johannes K. 28. Mdunyelwa Z. 34. Ntsabeleng T. 1. Onyango D. (G) 13. Rayners I. 14. Saleng M. 18. Zwane T.	2. Ben Ali M. 29. Diakite A. 34. Diarra J. 37. Drager M. 39. Haj Ali M. 12. Laifi N. 30. Maacha K. 1. Memmiche A. (G) 24. Rafia H.
Coaches
Cardoso M.	Beaumelle P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Ben Said B. 🟨,
35', Leon B. (Penalty Awarded),
35', 1 - 0, Leon B. ⚽,
45+4', Arthur Sales 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Morena T. 🟨,
57', Arthur Sales ↓, Allende M. ↑,
59', Boualia K. ↓, Diakite A. ↑,
69', Tka H. ↓, Rafia H. ↑,
69', Yan Sasse ↓, Diarra J. ↑,
72', Diakite A. 🟨,
78', Leon B. ↓, Rayners I. ↑,
78', Matthews T. ↓, Saleng M. ↑,
83', Konate A. ↓, Haj Ali M. ↑,
83', Danho F. ↓, Maacha K. ↑,
86', Morena T. ↓, Johannes K. ↑,
86', Adams J. ↓, Aubaas B. J. ↑,
90+4', Ogbelu O. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-0. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mamelodi Sundowns won 2.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, Mamelodi Sundowns is seen as the favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Mamelodi Sundowns won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mamelodi Sundowns won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Mamelodi Sundowns - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 50.08%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mamelodi Sundowns
CAF Champions League
12.04.26	Espérance ST - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:1 ✺
South African Premier Soccer League
07.04.26	Durban City - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:1 ✺
03.04.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Chippa United	4:1 ✺
CAF Champions League
22.03.26	Stade Malien - Mamelodi Sundowns	2:0 ✺
South African Premier Soccer League
17.03.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Marumo Gallants	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWLW
- Espérance ST
CAF Champions League
12.04.26	Espérance ST - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:1 ✺
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
04.04.26	Étoile du Sahel - Espérance ST	0:0 ✺
CAF Champions League
21.03.26	Al Ahly Cairo - Espérance ST	2:3 ✺
15.03.26	Espérance ST - Al Ahly Cairo	1:0 ✺
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
07.03.26	Espérance ST - Marsa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

CAF Champions League
12.04.26	Espérance ST - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:1
08.04.25	Espérance ST - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:0
01.04.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - Espérance ST	1:0
26.04.24	Mamelodi Sundowns - Espérance ST	0:1
20.04.24	Espérance ST - Mamelodi Sundowns	1:0
21.06.17	Espérance ST - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:0
02.06.17	Mamelodi Sundowns - Espérance ST	1:2

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