Match Info

MTN 8 Cup - Final

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Moses Mabhida Stadium (Durban)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, SuperSport PSL
South-africa	SABC 1, SABC Plus, SuperSport PSL


	Orlando Pirates		Mamelodi Sundowns

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.00	2.40
	2.80	3.00	2.55
	2.86	2.96	2.66
	2.73	2.99	2.54
	2.70	2.85	2.50
	2.75	3.25	2.51
	2.75	3.05	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↓ (2.9)	3.01 ↑ (2.85)	2.51 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orlando Pirates
33.3%

Draw
30.3%

Mamelodi Sundowns
36.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31%

31.5%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

31.2%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orlando Pirates has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Mamelodi Sundowns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orlando Pirates than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mamelodi Sundowns than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Orlando Pirates - Mamelodi Sundowns Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Chaine S. (G) 36. Sebelebele K. 6. Seema L. 5. Sibisi N. (C) 7. Hotto D. 33. Mokobodi T. 20. Selepe S. 16. Mbatha T. 23. Lungu G. 9. Mbuthuma Y. 11. Moremi T.	30. Williams R. (C) 22. Matuludi T. 42. Khoza M. 3. Ndamane K. 6. Modiba A. 11. Allende M. 4. Mokoena T. 27. Morena T. 10. Santos N. 17. Matthews T. 12. Leon B.
Substitutes
12. Appollis O. 32. Dladla S. (G) 49. Kgosietsile K. 17. Makgopa E. 48. Masilela S. 29. Mthiyane M. 3. Ndaba N. 21. Nkota M. 37. Zulu S.	19. Cele T. 31. Goss R. (G) 5. Lunga D. 33. Mailula C. 40. Mvala M. 38. Ndlovu S. 13. Rayners I. 29. van Wyk A. 18. Zwane T.
Coaches
Ouaddou A.	Cardoso M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Mokoena T. ⚽,
24', Selepe S. 🟨,
38', Matthews T. 🟨,
41', Modiba A. 🟨,
45+1', Sebelebele K. 🟨,
45+3', Ndamane K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Modiba A. ↓, Lunga D. ↑,
46', Sebelebele K. ↓, Appollis O. ↑,
49', Moremi T. 🟨,
62', Lungu G. (Penalty Awarded),
68', Santos N. ↓, Cele T. ↑,
74', Moremi T. ↓, Kgosietsile K. ↑,
74', Mbuthuma Y. ↓, Makgopa E. ↑,
74', Selepe S. ↓, Masilela S. ↑,
82', Leon B. ↓, Rayners I. ↑,
82', Matthews T. ↓, Ndlovu S. ↑,
82', Mbatha T. ↓, Nkota M. ↑,
84', Sibisi N. 🟨,
90', Cele T. 🟨,
90+5', 0 - 2, Rayners I. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Neutral location - Moses Mabhida Stadium.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orlando Pirates won 2.

In recent matches, both teams have secured multiple victories in strong fashion.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Orlando Pirates has recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:30 (averaging 0.9:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Orlando Pirates against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 5:11 goals (averaging 0.6:1.2 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orlando Pirates
South African Premier Soccer League
20.09.26	Marumo Gallants - Orlando Pirates	0:2 ✺
17.09.26	Orlando Pirates - Durban City	2:0 ✺
CAF Champions League
12.09.26	Orlando Pirates - La Cure Waves	3:1 ✺
South African Premier Soccer League
01.09.26	Kruger United - Orlando Pirates	0:4 ✺
South African MTN 8 Cup
29.08.26	Orlando Pirates - Sekhukhune United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWWW
- Mamelodi Sundowns
FIFA Intercontinental Cup
19.09.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Al-Ahli Jeddah	2:1 ✺
South African Premier Soccer League
12.09.26	Chippa United - Mamelodi Sundowns	1:1 ✺
09.09.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Siwelele	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Lamontville Golden Arrows - Mamelodi Sundowns	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Milford	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

South African Premier Soccer League
18.02.26	Orlando Pirates - Mamelodi Sundowns	1:2
01.11.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - Orlando Pirates	1:1
South African MTN 8 Cup
23.08.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - Orlando Pirates	1:2 penalties
16.08.25	Orlando Pirates - Mamelodi Sundowns	1:1
South African Premier Soccer League
16.03.25	Orlando Pirates - Mamelodi Sundowns	2:1
08.02.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - Orlando Pirates	4:1
South African Nedbank Cup
01.06.24	Mamelodi Sundowns - Orlando Pirates	1:2

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