Match Info

CAF Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade du 26 Mars (Bamako) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Melki M. (Tun)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 1, DStv Now, SuperSport Football Plus
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Australia	03:00	beIN Connect
Canada	12:00	beIN Connect
Hong Kong	00:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	23:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Kenya	19:00	Gotv
Malaysia	00:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
New Zealand	05:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	17:00	SuperSport Football Plus
Philippines	00:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Singapore	00:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
South Africa	18:00	SABC 1, SABC Plus, SuperSport Variety 4
Thailand	23:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Usa	12:00	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Stade Malien		Mamelodi Sundowns

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.9	2.75
	2.95	3	2.2
	2.58	2.82	2.98
	2.6	2.96	2.93
	2.68	2.98	2.77	Watch
	2.9	3	2.25
	2.56	3.03	2.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (3.43)	2.96 ↓ (3.2)	2.68 ↑ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stade Malien
34.4%

Draw
31.2%

Mamelodi Sundowns
34.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.1%

27.9%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7%

27.4%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stade Malien has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stade Malien's performance.

Mamelodi Sundowns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mamelodi Sundowns might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stade Malien than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stade Malien that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mamelodi Sundowns than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mamelodi Sundowns could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Stade Malien - Mamelodi Sundowns Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Stade Malien will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Traore N. (G) 2. Traore D. 5. Diarra B. 28. Bode A. 36. Simpara I. 7. Coulibaly O. 8. Mandjan H. 18. Traore M. (C) 11. Diallo M. 34. Nkeng T. 10. Coulibaly D.	30. Williams R. (C) 25. Mudau K. 3. Ndamane K. 20. Kekana G. 6. Modiba A. 8. Adams J. 4. Mokoena T. 11. Allende M. 10. Santos N. 9. Arthur Sales 13. Rayners I.
Substitutes
32. Asamoah G. 31. Bagayoko L. 21. Conde M. 4. Coulibaly A. 15. Hama B. 38. Koita S. 25. Konare S. 19. Simpara Z. 16. Sy C. (G)	24. Cupido K. 12. Leon B. 29. Lunga D. 17. Matthews T. 28. Mdunyelwa Z. 21. Mkhulise S. 34. Ntsabeleng T. 1. Onyango D. (G) 18. Zwane T.
Coaches
Njoya M.	Cardoso M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Nkeng T. ⚽, Traore M. (A),
10', Coulibaly D. 🟨,
20', Rayners I. 🟨,
25', Bode A. 🟨,
35', Traore M. 🟨,
40', 2 - 0, Mandjan H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ndamane K. ↓, Cupido K. ↑,
63', Rayners I. ↓, Leon B. ↑,
63', Arthur Sales ↓, Matthews T. ↑,
77', Modiba A. 🟥,
80', Santos N. ↓, Lunga D. ↑,
81', Allende M. ↓, Mdunyelwa Z. ↑,
83', Leon B. 🟨,
85', Diallo M. ↓, Conde M. ↑,
89', Traore M. ↓, Simpara Z. ↑,
90+2', Williams R. 🟨,
90+3', Mdunyelwa Z. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-3. Second leg.

Stade Malien is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mamelodi Sundowns is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Stade Malien may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Mamelodi Sundowns has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Stade Malien won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Malien
CAF Champions League
13.03.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Stade Malien	3:0 ✺
Malian Première Division
04.03.26	Binga - Stade Malien	4:0 ✺
01.03.26	Stade Malien - Real Bamako	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Stade Malien - Bakaridjan	0:0 ✺
19.02.26	USFAS Bamako - Stade Malien	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLTW
- Mamelodi Sundowns
South African Premier Soccer League
17.03.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Marumo Gallants	3:1 ✺
CAF Champions League
13.03.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Stade Malien	3:0 ✺
South African Premier Soccer League
10.03.26	Orbit College - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Lamontville Golden Arrows	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Sekhukhune United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

CAF Champions League
13.03.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Stade Malien	3:0

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