Match Info

CAF Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium (Pretoria)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 1, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 1, Sooka
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
South-africa	SABC 3, SABC Plus, SuperSport Variety 4
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Tubi TV


	Mamelodi Sundowns		Stade Malien

	1	X	2
	1.17	5.75	17
	1.17	5.9	18.5
	1.15	6.21	21.84
	1.23	5.35	14.25	Watch
	1.17	5.5	21
	1.18	5.95	17.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↓ (1.4)	5.78 ↑ (4)	18.37 ↑ (6.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mamelodi Sundowns
78.9%

Draw
16.1%

Stade Malien
5.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

22.5%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.6%

21.4%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mamelodi Sundowns has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mamelodi Sundowns's performance.

Stade Malien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stade Malien might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mamelodi Sundowns than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mamelodi Sundowns that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stade Malien than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stade Malien could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Mamelodi Sundowns - Stade Malien Predictions

Users Predictions: Mamelodi Sundowns will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Williams R. (C) 25. Mudau K. 20. Kekana G. 3. Ndamane K. 8. Adams J. 4. Mokoena T. 6. Modiba A. 9. Arthur Sales 10. Santos N. 17. Matthews T. 12. Leon B.	1. Traore N. (G) 6. Camara M. 5. Diarra B. 36. Simpara I. 13. Awine F. 8. Mandjan H. 12. Bello A. 7. Coulibaly O. 18. Traore M. (C) 10. Coulibaly D. 34. Nkeng T.
Substitutes
11. Allende M. 23. Basadien F. 37. Johannes K. 28. Mdunyelwa Z. 35. Mothiba L. 1. Onyango D. (G) 13. Rayners I. 14. Saleng M. 18. Zwane T.	29. Abdullah M. 32. Asamoah G. 21. Conde M. 4. Coulibaly A. 15. Hama B. 37. Issa H. 19. Simpara Z. 16. Sy C. (G) 2. Traore D.
Coaches
Cardoso M.	Njoya M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Mudau K. ⚽, Arthur Sales (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 2 - 0, Leon B. ⚽, Santos N. (A),
64', Matthews T. ↓, Saleng M. ↑,
66', Leon B. ↓, Rayners I. ↑,
71', Adams J. ↓, Allende M. ↑,
74', 3 - 0, Rayners I. ⚽, Santos N. (A),
77', Arthur Sales ↓, Zwane T. ↑,
81', Coulibaly O. ↓, Coulibaly A. ↑,
81', Coulibaly D. ↓, Traore D. ↑,
87', Traore M. ↓, Simpara Z. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Mamelodi Sundowns is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Stade Malien has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Stade Malien may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mamelodi Sundowns is the clear favorite.

We predict that Mamelodi Sundowns will win today's game, with odds of 1.46.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Mamelodi Sundowns - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 64.21%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mamelodi Sundowns
South African Premier Soccer League
10.03.26	Orbit College - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Lamontville Golden Arrows	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Mamelodi Sundowns - Sekhukhune United	3:1 ✺
24.02.26	AmaZulu - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:1 ✺
South African Nedbank Cup
21.02.26	TS Galaxy - Mamelodi Sundowns	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWWWL
- Stade Malien
Malian Première Division
04.03.26	Binga - Stade Malien	4:0 ✺
01.03.26	Stade Malien - Real Bamako	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Stade Malien - Bakaridjan	0:0 ✺
19.02.26	USFAS Bamako - Stade Malien	0:1 ✺
CAF Champions League
14.02.26	Simba - Stade Malien	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLTWL

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