Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 18 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Manchester City		Napoli

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5.5
	1.65	4.1	5.35
	1.66	4.1	5.47
	1.56	3.88	6.00	Watch
	1.67	4	4.75
	1.68	4.2	5.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.66)	4.05 ↓ (4.18)	5.43 ↑ (5.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
58.6%

Draw
23.7%

Napoli
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

23%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	13.7%	12.6%

Manchester City - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 90 users predict this event. Man City will win (votes: 69 - 76.7%). Napoli will win (votes: 10 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 12.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man City: 68% – 85.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Man City (2.05) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Napoli (2.37) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Napoli (4.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (27 of 33 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 41 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 31 - 75.6%). Napoli (votes: 5 - 12.2%). Tie (votes: 4 - 9.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Donnarumma G. (G) 45. Khusanov A. 3. Dias R. 24. Gvardiol J. 33. O'Reilly N. 16. Rodri 20. Silva B. (C) 4. Reijnders T. 47. Foden P. 11. Doku J. 9. Haaland E.	32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 31. Beukema S. 4. Buongiorno A. 37. Spinazzola L. 68. Lobotka S. 21. Politano M. 99. Anguissa F. 11. De Bruyne K. 8. McTominay S. 19. Hojlund R.
Substitutes
6. Ake N. 13. Bettinelli M. (G) 52. Bobb O. 82. Lewis R. 91. Mfuni S. 63. Mukasa D. 14. Nico 27. Nunes M. 26. Savinho 1. Trafford J. (G)	69. Ambrosino G. 7. David Neres 20. Elmas E. 25. Ferrante M. (G) 6. Gilmour B. 3. Gutierrez M. 5. Juan Jesus 70. Lang N. 27. Lucca L. 1. Meret A. (G) 17. Olivera M. 26. Vergara A.
Coaches
Guardiola P.	Conte A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Di Lorenzo G. 🟥,
26', De Bruyne K. ↓, Olivera M. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', Politano M. 🟨,
55', Politano M. ↓, Juan Jesus ↑,
56', 1 - 0, Haaland E. ⚽, Foden P. (A),
60', Rodri ↓, Nico ↑,
65', 2 - 0, Doku J. ⚽, Reijnders T. (A),
69', Doku J. ↓, Savinho ↑,
71', Hojlund R. ↓, David Neres ↑,
71', Anguissa F. ↓, Elmas E. ↑,
71', Lobotka S. ↓, Gilmour B. ↑,
80', Reijnders T. ↓, Lewis R. ↑,
80', Gvardiol J. ↓, Ake N. ↑,
80', Haaland E. ↓, Bobb O. ↑,

Preview

Man City has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Napoli is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Man City is the team to beat.

There will not play in Man City: Ait Nouri R. (Ankle Injury) Cherki R. (Thigh Injury) Kovacic M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Marmoush O. (Knee Injury) Phillips K. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Stones J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Napoli: Contini N. (Hand Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Rrahmani A. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Man City: Bettinelli M. (Knock)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Man City won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Man City won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Manchester City - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 57.98%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English Premier League
14.09.25	Manchester City - Manchester United	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Manchester City - Tottenham Hotspur	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Manchester City	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Palermo - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLLWW
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
13.09.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Napoli - Cagliari	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Sassuolo - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.25	Napoli - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:1 ✺
10.08.25	Napoli - Sorrento	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
01.11.17	Napoli - Manchester City	2:4
17.10.17	Manchester City - Napoli	2:1

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