Match Info

Premier League - Round 4

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Manchester City		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	1.73	4	4.33
	1.77	4	4.1
	1.78	4.1	4.3
	1.79	4.15	4.34
	1.00	17.23	100.00	Watch
	1.7	4	4.4
	1.8	4.25	4.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.72)	5.96 ↑ (4.1)	17.99 ↑ (4.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
73%

Draw
20.3%

Manchester United
6.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

23.4%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Manchester City's performance.

Manchester United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Manchester United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.2%	24.1%	28.7%

Manchester City - Manchester United Predictions

Users Predictions: 105 users predict this event. Man City will win (votes: 51 - 48.6%). Man Utd will win (votes: 31 - 29.5%). It will Tie (votes: 23 - 21.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man City: 39% – 58.2%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 41 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 19 - 46.3%). Man Utd (votes: 10 - 24.4%). Tie (votes: 12 - 29.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Man City (2.13) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - draw (2.13) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Man Utd (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 44 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 21 - 47.7%). Man Utd (votes: 11 - 25%). Tie (votes: 12 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Donnarumma G. (G) 45. Khusanov A. 3. Dias R. 24. Gvardiol J. 33. O'Reilly N. 4. Reijnders T. 16. Rodri 20. Silva B. (C) 47. Foden P. 11. Doku J. 9. Haaland E.	1. Bayindir A. (G) 15. Yoro L. 4. de Ligt M. 23. Shaw L. 3. Mazraoui N. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 25. Ugarte M. 13. Dorgu P. 19. Mbeumo B. 16. Diallo A. 30. Sesko B.
Substitutes
6. Ake N. 52. Bobb O. 82. Lewis R. 91. Mfuni S. 63. Mukasa D. 14. Nico 27. Nunes M. 26. Savinho 1. Trafford J. (G)	18. Casemiro 33. Fredricson T. 22. Heaton T. (G) 26. Heaven A. 31. Lammens S. (G) 35. Leon D. 5. Maguire H. 37. Mainoo K. 11. Zirkzee J.
Coaches
Guardiola P.	Amorim R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Foden P. ⚽, Doku J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', 2 - 0, Haaland E. ⚽, Doku J. (A),
62', Mazraoui N. ↓, Mainoo K. ↑,
62', Yoro L. ↓, Maguire H. ↑,
68', 3 - 0, Haaland E. ⚽, Silva B. (A),
76', Rodri ↓, Nico ↑,
77', Doku J. ↓, Savinho ↑,
80', Sesko B. ↓, Casemiro ↑,
80', Ugarte M. ↓, Zirkzee J. ↑,
87', Haaland E. ↓, Bobb O. ↑,
88', Silva B. ↓, Ake N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 2.

Man Utd has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Man Utd may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Man City is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Man City: Bettinelli M. (Knock) Cherki R. (Thigh Injury) Kovacic M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Marmoush O. (Knee Injury) Phillips K. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Savinho (Injury)

There will not play in Man Utd: Cunha M. (Injury) Dalot D. (Muscle Injury) Martinez Li. (Knee Injury) Mount M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Man City: Foden P. (Injury) Lewis R. (Injury) Stones J. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Man City won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 36:22. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:17. (average 2.1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Manchester City - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 55.89%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English Premier League
31.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Manchester City - Tottenham Hotspur	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Manchester City	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Palermo - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
FIFA Club World Cup
30.06.25	Manchester City - Al-Hilal	3:4 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLWWL
- Manchester United
English Premier League
30.08.25	Manchester United - Burnley	3:2 ✺
English League Cup
27.08.25	Grimsby Town - Manchester United	3:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League
24.08.25	Fulham - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Manchester United - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Manchester United - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
06.04.25	Manchester United - Manchester City	0:0
15.12.24	Manchester City - Manchester United	1:2
English FA Community Shield
10.08.24	Manchester City - Manchester United	2:1 penalties
English FA Cup
25.05.24	Manchester City - Manchester United	1:2
English Premier League
03.03.24	Manchester City - Manchester United	3:1
29.10.23	Manchester United - Manchester City	0:3
English FA Cup
03.06.23	Manchester City - Manchester United	2:1

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