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Fiorentina - Napoli

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Match Info

  • Serie A - Round 5
  • Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)
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    Fiorentina Napoli
    Fiorentina Napoli
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.3 ↑
    (3.27)    		 3.33 ↓
    (3.44)    		 2.27 ↑
    (2.2)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

    • The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Fiorentina
    29.1%    		Draw
    28.8%    		Napoli
    42.2%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    29.1% 27.7% 43.2%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    29.2% 27.7% 43.1%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • The chances for Fiorentina have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
  • Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    5% 15% 80%

    Fiorentina - Napoli Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 1 - 5%). Napoli will win (votes: 16 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Napoli: 62.5% โ€“ 97.5%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.5 - Fiorentina (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • New Consensus by Tipsters:
    • 1X2 - Napoli (2.30) (votes: 89%) โญ Best Value.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    43. Spainde Gea D. (C)
    20. SpainJimenez A.
      3. RomaniaDragusin R.
      6. ItalyRanieri L.
    33. BrazilViery
    14. FranceAtta A.
    44. ItalyFagioli N.
    27. ItalyNdour C.
    30. ArgentinaMastantuono F.
    25. SwedenNjie A.
    32. ArgentinaPellegrino M.
    		32. SerbiaMilinkovic-Savic V. (G)
    22. ItalyDi Lorenzo G. (C)
    13. KosovoRrahmani A.
    16. SpainMarin R.
    17. UruguayOlivera M.
      6. ScotlandGilmour B.
    68. SlovakiaLobotka S.
    21. ItalyPolitano M.
    11. BelgiumDe Bruyne K.
    70. NetherlandsLang N.
    19. DenmarkHojlund R.
    Substitutes
    23. Guinea-BissauBeto
      4. ItalyBrescianini M.
    53. DenmarkChristensen O. (G)
      2. BrazilDodo
    29. ItalyGnonto W.
    42. IvoryInao Oulai C.
    17. PortugalJoao Mario
    19. ItalyLezzerini L. (G)
    72. ItalyMazzeo B.
      5. CroatiaPongracic M.
    28. PortugalPote
    21. SpainValdepenas V.
    		99. CameroonAnguissa F.
      5. FranceBadiashile B.
    31. NetherlandsBeukema S.
    14. ItalyContini N. (G)
      7. BrazilDavid Neres
      2. ItalyFavasuli C.
    20. ItalyLucca L.
    12. ItalyPugliese C. (G)
    26. ItalyVergara A.
    Coaches
         ItalyVanoli P.
    		     ItalyAllegri M.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 1)
    • 23', 0 - 1, Gilmour B. ⚽, Politano M. (A),
    • 42', Mastantuono F. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
    • 46', Viery ↓, Valdepenas V. ↑,
    • 51', 1 - 1, Jimenez A. ⚽, Ndour C. (A),
    • 58', Hojlund R. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
    • 58', Lang N. ↓, David Neres ↑,
    • 62', Ranieri L. 🟨,
    • 66', Atta A. ↓, Pote ↑,
    • 66', Pellegrino M. ↓, Beto ↑,
    • 73', Politano M. ↓, Favasuli C. ↑,
    • 80', Njie A. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
    • 83', de Gea D. 🟨,
    • 85', Ranieri L. ↓, Pongracic M. ↑,
    • 90', Lobotka S. ↓, Anguissa F. ↑,

    Preview

  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 0.
  • Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.
  • A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Napoli holding a narrow advantage.
  • Confirmed absences for Fiorentina: Parisi F. (Knee Injury).
  • Confirmed absences for Napoli: Alisson Santos (Muscle Injury) Buongiorno A. (Knee Injury) Giovane (Groin Injury) Marianucci L. (Knee Injury) McTominay S. (Heart Problems) Meret A. (Muscle Injury).
  • Doubtful / questionable for Fiorentina: Sottil R. (Back Injury).
  • Doubtful / questionable for Napoli: Anguissa F. (Muscle Injury) Spinazzola L. (Muscle Injury).
  • In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Fiorentina has recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:36 (averaging 1.3:1.8 goals per game).
  • Specifically in home fixtures for Fiorentina against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with 10:16 goals (averaging 1.1:1.8 per game).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    7Napoli942317:11614
    19Fiorentina81169:19-104

    Outrights of Italian Serie A for now
    Napoli: 1.1% Fiorentina: 0.18%
    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Fiorentina
    Coppa Italia
    15.09.26 Fiorentina - Pisa 3:0 ✺
    Italian Serie A
    11.09.26 Venezia - Fiorentina 2:4 ✺
    05.09.26 Fiorentina - Torino 1:2 ✺
    29.08.26 Fiorentina - Frosinone 0:3 ✺
    24.08.26 Roma - Fiorentina 4:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3
    WWLLL
    - SSC Napoli
    Italian Serie A
    13.09.26 Napoli - Bologna 1:0 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    09.09.26 Napoli - Arsenal 0:1 ✺
    Italian Serie A
    05.09.26 Inter Milan - Napoli 3:2 ✺
    30.08.26 Napoli - Como 1:2 ✺
    22.08.26 Genoa - Napoli 0:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6
    WLLLW
    Latest Head to Head
    Italian Serie A
    31.01.26 Napoli - Fiorentina 2:1
    13.09.25 Fiorentina - Napoli 1:3
    09.03.25 Napoli - Fiorentina 2:1
    04.01.25 Fiorentina - Napoli 0:3
    17.05.24 Fiorentina - Napoli 2:2
    Italian Super Cup
    18.01.24 Napoli - Fiorentina 3:0
    Italian Serie A
    08.10.23 Napoli - Fiorentina 1:3
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Fiorentina
    Italian Serie A
    02.11.26 Sassuolo - Fiorentina ✺
    29.10.26 Fiorentina - Atalanta ✺
    - SSC Napoli
    UEFA Champions League
    04.11.26 Porto - Napoli ✺
    Italian Serie A
    01.11.26 Juventus - Napoli ✺

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