What is the expert prediction for Fiorentina vs Napoli?

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Fiorentina vs Napoli Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, September 13, 2025)

Match Info

Serie A - Round 3

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Zufferli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
China	Migu, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1, COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Fiorentina		Napoli

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.25	2	Watch
	3.5	3.1	2.2
	3.95	3.2	2.08	Watch
	3.75	3.21	2.25
	40.00	17.28	1.00	Watch
	3.5	3.1	2.1
	3.97	3.44	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.97 ↑ (3.75)	5.23 ↑ (3.22)	1.96 ↓ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
13.7%

Draw
23.6%

Napoli
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.5%

29.6%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

30.7%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fiorentina's form might have worsened.

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Napoli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-19.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Napoli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.5%	15%	77.5%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 3 - 7.5%). Napoli will win (votes: 31 - 77.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Napoli: 64.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 2 - 10%). Napoli (votes: 12 - 60%). Tie (votes: 6 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Fiorentina (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Fiorentina (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Napoli (2.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 17.4%). Napoli (votes: 13 - 56.5%). Tie (votes: 6 - 26.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (G) 15. Comuzzo P. 5. Pongracic M. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 7. Sohm S. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 21. Gosens R. 9. Dzeko E. 20. Kean M.	32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 31. Beukema S. 4. Buongiorno A. 37. Spinazzola L. 68. Lobotka S. 21. Politano M. 11. De Bruyne K. 99. Anguissa F. 8. McTominay S. 19. Hojlund R.
Substitutes
22. Fazzini J. 29. Fortini N. 60. Kouadio E. 48. Lamptey T. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 18. Mari P. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 27. Ndour C. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 24. Richardson A. 26. Viti M.	69. Ambrosino G. 7. David Neres 20. Elmas E. 25. Ferrante M. (G) 6. Gilmour B. 3. Gutierrez M. 5. Juan Jesus 70. Lang N. 27. Lucca L. 35. Marianucci L. 30. Mazzocchi P. 1. Meret A. (G) 17. Olivera M. 26. Vergara A.
Coaches
Pioli S.	Conte A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, De Bruyne K. (Pen),
14', 0 - 2, Hojlund R. ⚽, Spinazzola L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Dzeko E. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
51', 0 - 3, Beukema S. ⚽, Anguissa F. (A),
65', Fagioli N. ↓, Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↑,
65', Sohm S. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
69', Politano M. ↓, David Neres ↑,
69', De Bruyne K. ↓, Elmas E. ↑,
69', Spinazzola L. ↓, Olivera M. ↑,
73', Hojlund R. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
79', 1 - 3, Ranieri L. ⚽,
87', Comuzzo P. ↓, Lamptey T. ↑,
90+3', Lobotka S. ↓, Gilmour B. ↑,
90+3', Pongracic M. ↓, Viti M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 1.

Fiorentina is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Napoli is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Recently, Fiorentina has had a series of away games.

Recently, Napoli has had a series of home games.

Napoli could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Kouame C. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Napoli: Contini N. (Hand Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Rrahmani A. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Gudmundsson A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: David Neres (Muscle Injury) Gutierrez M. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:36. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1.1:1.6).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
31.08.25	Torino - Fiorentina	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Fiorentina - Polissya Zhytomyr	3:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
24.08.25	Cagliari - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Polissya Zhytomyr - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Manchester United - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWTWT
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
30.08.25	Napoli - Cagliari	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Sassuolo - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.25	Napoli - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:1 ✺
10.08.25	Napoli - Sorrento	4:0 ✺
09.08.25	Napoli - Girona	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
09.03.25	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1
04.01.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	0:3
17.05.24	Fiorentina - Napoli	2:2
Italian Super Cup
18.01.24	Napoli - Fiorentina	3:0
Italian Serie A
08.10.23	Napoli - Fiorentina	1:3
07.05.23	Napoli - Fiorentina	1:0
28.08.22	Fiorentina - Napoli	0:0

Fiorentina - Napoli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide