Match Info

Serie A - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	Q League Asia, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Sport TV
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+, SportyNet
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Cambodia	MyTV
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM, fubo Sports Network 4 DRM, fubo Sports Network 6 DRM, fubo Sports Network 9 DRM, fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	DAZN, TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Ecuador	ESPN
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	DAZN, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
India	ZEE5
Indonesia	Vidio
Iraq	Almanasa
Israel	ONE Sport 2
Italy	DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Plus
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1, Polsat Sport Extra 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV, Thmanyah
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Sport 1, Voyo
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2, Orange Futbol 3
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	DAZN, TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, NBC Universo, NBC, Paramount+, Peacock, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Fiorentina		Napoli

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.3	2.3	Watch
	3.10	3.40	2.25
	3.25	3.2	2.25	Watch
	3.36	3.34	2.35
	3.42	3.42	2.24	Watch
	3.3	3.25	2.3
	3.43	3.31	2.23
	3.25	3.45	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (3.27)	3.33 ↓ (3.44)	2.27 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
29.1%

Draw
28.8%

Napoli
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

27.7%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

27.8%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Fiorentina have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	15%	80%

Fiorentina - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 1 - 5%). Napoli will win (votes: 16 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Napoli: 62.5% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Fiorentina (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Napoli (2.30) (votes: 89%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (C) 20. Jimenez A. 3. Dragusin R. 6. Ranieri L. 33. Viery 14. Atta A. 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 30. Mastantuono F. 25. Njie A. 32. Pellegrino M.	32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 13. Rrahmani A. 16. Marin R. 17. Olivera M. 6. Gilmour B. 68. Lobotka S. 21. Politano M. 11. De Bruyne K. 70. Lang N. 19. Hojlund R.
Substitutes
23. Beto 4. Brescianini M. 53. Christensen O. (G) 2. Dodo 29. Gnonto W. 42. Inao Oulai C. 17. Joao Mario 19. Lezzerini L. (G) 72. Mazzeo B. 5. Pongracic M. 28. Pote 21. Valdepenas V.	99. Anguissa F. 5. Badiashile B. 31. Beukema S. 14. Contini N. (G) 7. David Neres 2. Favasuli C. 20. Lucca L. 12. Pugliese C. (G) 26. Vergara A.
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Allegri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Gilmour B. ⚽, Politano M. (A),
42', Mastantuono F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Viery ↓, Valdepenas V. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Jimenez A. ⚽, Ndour C. (A),
58', Hojlund R. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
58', Lang N. ↓, David Neres ↑,
62', Ranieri L. 🟨,
66', Atta A. ↓, Pote ↑,
66', Pellegrino M. ↓, Beto ↑,
73', Politano M. ↓, Favasuli C. ↑,
80', Njie A. ↓, Gnonto W. ↑,
83', de Gea D. 🟨,
85', Ranieri L. ↓, Pongracic M. ↑,
90', Lobotka S. ↓, Anguissa F. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 0.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Napoli holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Fiorentina: Parisi F. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Napoli: Alisson Santos (Muscle Injury) Buongiorno A. (Knee Injury) Giovane (Groin Injury) Marianucci L. (Knee Injury) McTominay S. (Heart Problems) Meret A. (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Fiorentina: Sottil R. (Back Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Napoli: Anguissa F. (Muscle Injury) Spinazzola L. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Fiorentina has recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:36 (averaging 1.3:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Fiorentina against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with 10:16 goals (averaging 1.1:1.8 per game).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Napoli: 3.78% Fiorentina: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7:6	1	7
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Coppa Italia
15.09.26	Fiorentina - Pisa	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
11.09.26	Venezia - Fiorentina	2:4 ✺
05.09.26	Fiorentina - Torino	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Fiorentina - Frosinone	0:3 ✺
24.08.26	Roma - Fiorentina	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLLL
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
13.09.26	Napoli - Bologna	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Napoli - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
05.09.26	Inter Milan - Napoli	3:2 ✺
30.08.26	Napoli - Como	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Genoa - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
31.01.26	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1
13.09.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:3
09.03.25	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1
04.01.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	0:3
17.05.24	Fiorentina - Napoli	2:2
Italian Super Cup
18.01.24	Napoli - Fiorentina	3:0
Italian Serie A
08.10.23	Napoli - Fiorentina	1:3

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