Match Info

Premier League - Round 17

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Gor Mahia		Mara Sugar

	1	X	2
	1.72	3	5.15
	1.82	2.81	5.32	Watch
	1.75	2.75	5
	1.7	2.95	5.74
	1.73	3	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.63)	2.9 ↓ (3.2)	5.24 ↓ (5.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gor Mahia
51.7%

Draw
31.1%

Mara Sugar
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

28.6%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

27.2%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gor Mahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Mara Sugar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gor Mahia than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gor Mahia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mara Sugar than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Gor Mahia - Mara Sugar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Oluoch F. ⚽,
30', 2 - 0, Musa S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
85', 3 - 0, Kappen S. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 and 13).

Gor Mahia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mara Sugar has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gor Mahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gor Mahia is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Gor Mahia will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Gor Mahia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:0. (average 3:0).

Including home match between the teams, Gor Mahia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Gor Mahia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gor Mahia
Kenyan Premier League
14.01.26	Gor Mahia - Muranga Seal	3:2 ✺
11.01.26	Shabana - Gor Mahia	0:0 ✺
06.01.26	Kariobangi Sharks - Gor Mahia	1:4 ✺
21.12.25	Nairobi United - Gor Mahia	1:1 ✺
17.12.25	Gor Mahia - Kakamega Homeboyz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTWTW
- Mara Sugar FC
Kenyan Premier League
14.01.26	Police FC - Mara Sugar	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	APS Bomet - Mara Sugar	1:1 ✺
22.12.25	Mara Sugar - Muranga Seal	1:3 ✺
17.12.25	Shabana - Mara Sugar	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Mara Sugar - Kariobangi Sharks	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
27.04.25	Gor Mahia - Mara Sugar	4:0
30.11.24	Mara Sugar - Gor Mahia	0:2

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