Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 17

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Marbella (Marbella)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Marbella		Hércules

	1	X	2
	2.38	2.9	2.88
	2.52	2.92	2.88
	2.49	3	3.25
	2.5	2.89	3.1	Watch
	2.4	2.8	2.9
	2.54	3.01	2.9
	2.37	2.71	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.49)	2.89 ↑ (2.87)	3 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marbella
37.5%

Draw
31.9%

Hércules
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

31.3%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

32.5%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marbella has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Hércules has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marbella than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hércules than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Marbella - Hércules Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Hércules (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hércules (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Garcia M. (G) 12. Fattore V. 4. Punal A. 23. Escassi A. 3. Martinez A. 11. Boussefiane H. 10. Luis Alcalde 6. Lopez A. 8. Eugeni 20. Cambra J. 9. Rodri	1. Trujillo Hernandez A. C. (G) 20. Sotillos A. 4. Rentero J. 5. Monsalve N. 24. Jimenez J. 18. Rojas C. 8. Mangada C. 11. Ropero U. 22. Aranda A. 16. Gomes V. 19. Sol F.
Substitutes
5. Acosta L. 17. Alexiel 2. Alvarez J. 18. Du Yuezheng 30. Guzman T. 27. Haruna M. 25. Munoz L. 19. Ohemeng E. 16. Ruiz A. 22. Toper 13. Vassilev D. (G)	3. Alvarez A. 13. Blazic A. (G) 15. Cantero R. 23. de Palmas R. 21. Retu 26. Sergio G. F. 9. Slavy

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Rodri 🟨,
20', Mangada C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 0 - 1, Ropero U. ⚽,
60', Ropero U. ↓, de Palmas R. ↑,
61', Luis Alcalde ↓, Munoz L. ↑,
70', Sol F. ↓, Slavy ↑,
70', Rojas C. ↓, Retu ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Marbella is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hércules has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Marbella may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Marbella is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Marbella won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Marbella won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Marbella - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 36.16%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Hércules - the odds 2.76 are the expected chance of winning is 32.54%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marbella FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
13.12.25	Juventud de Torremolinos - Marbella	1:1 ✺
10.12.25	Marbella - Atlético Madrid B	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Marbella - Atlético Sanluqueño	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Sevilla B - Marbella	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Marbella	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLWLL
- Hércules CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
14.12.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Hércules	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Hércules - Juventud de Torremolinos	2:1 ✺
30.11.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Hércules	2:2 ✺
22.11.25	Hércules - Betis B	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	Eldense - Hércules	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
25.01.25	Marbella - Hércules	1:2
20.11.24	Hércules - Marbella	2:1

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