Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 12

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Nou Estadi de Tarragona (Tarragona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Gimnástic de Tarragona		Marbella

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	3.6
				Watch
	2.05	3.15	3.5
	2.15	3.1	3.81
	1.87	3.40	4.02	Watch
	2.03	3.02	3.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.87)	3.21 ↓ (3.4)	3.71 ↓ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnástic de Tarragona
46.2%

Draw
28.8%

Marbella
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

27.3%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.8%

26.7%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnástic de Tarragona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Marbella has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnástic de Tarragona than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marbella than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Gimnástic de Tarragona - Marbella Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gimnàstic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Marbella (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gimnàstic (votes: 1 - 50%). Marbella (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rebollo D. (G) 2. Camus S. 4. Alba D. 5. Morgado C. 16. Moi 17. Martinez P. 8. Montalvo M. 10. Jardi J. 14. Sanz O. (C) 23. Baselga M. 9. Omoigui C.	1. Garcia M. (G) 12. Fattore V. 15. Gabri 23. Escassi A. 3. Martinez A. 20. Cambra J. 5. Acosta L. 25. Munoz L. 8. Eugeni 19. Ohemeng E. 9. Rodri
Substitutes
12. Almpanis C. 22. Alvaro Garcia 30. Cabezas D. 19. Fuentes J. 13. Fuidias T. (G) 11. Jimenez A. 7. Junca D. 18. Kaptoum W. 6. Prendes M. 21. Pujol E. 20. Santos S. 15. Torres F.	17. Alexiel 2. Alvarez J. 11. Boussefiane H. 10. Luis Alcalde 21. Palacin P. 4. Punal A. 16. Ruiz A. 13. Vassilev D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', Baselga M. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Baselga M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Camus S. ↓, Santos S. ↑,
46', Acosta L. ↓, Ruiz A. ↑,
46', Munoz L. ↓, Boussefiane H. ↑,
50', Camus S. 🟨,
55', Sanz O. ↓, Prendes M. ↑,
62', Baselga M. ↓, Jimenez A. ↑,
62', Cambra J. ↓, Luis Alcalde ↑,
63', Moi 🟨,
66', Escassi A. 🟨,
75', Fattore V. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
76', Omoigui C. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
76', Moi ↓, Alvaro Garcia ↑,
80', Eugeni ↓, Palacin P. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Gimnàstic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Gimnàstic is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Gimnástic de Tarragona - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 49.62%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnástic de Tarragona
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
08.11.25	Real Murcia - Gimnástic de Tarragona	3:2 ✺
02.11.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Atlético Madrid B	0:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
30.10.25	Atlético Baleares - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:0 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
25.10.25	Sabadell - Gimnástic de Tarragona	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Tarazona	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLLTW
- Marbella FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
09.11.25	Marbella - Alcorcón	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Teruel - Marbella	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Marbella - Cartagena	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Antequera - Marbella	3:1 ✺
11.10.25	Marbella - Eldense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLTLW

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