Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 17

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense (Trofa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Trofense		Marco 09

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.98	3.45
	2.08	3.13	3.71	Watch
	2.15	2.88	3.4
	2.17	3.1	3.51
	1.96	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.74)	3.02 ↓ (3.19)	3.56 ↓ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trofense
44%

Draw
30.3%

Marco 09
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

28.4%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

27.9%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trofense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Trofense's form might have worsened.

Marco 09 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marco 09's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Trofense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marco 09, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Trofense - Marco 09 Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Trofense will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Marco will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Silva N. (C) 5. Cunha G. 6. Daniel J. 19. Diarra M. 22. Duarte E. 7. Ivandro 89. Nuninho 2. Oliveira J. 8. Reko Silva 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 30. Welisson	99. Carvalho D. (G) 10. Duarte D. 53. Matos T. 11. Mauro Ribeiro 5. Nandinho 3. Pedro M. 25. Pereira H. (C) 88. Silva D. 9. Soares P. 2. Sousa B. 95. Sousa V.
Substitutes
14. Assis Cardoso R. H. 15. Borges F. 9. Hachadi K. 29. Joel 87. Melro R. 21. Pereira M. 96. Rendeiro R. (G) 79. Rocha T. 77. Roka	14. Doukoure H. 79. Erivaldo 23. Garro L. 27. Guimaraes B. 18. Martins D. 6. Pacheco F. 21. Pedrosa C. 26. Ze Couto (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Sousa V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ivandro ↓, Melro R. ↑,
46', Oliveira J. ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
62', 0 - 1, Soares P. ⚽, Silva D. (A),
63', 🟨,
68', Sousa V. ↓, Erivaldo ↑,
69', Welisson ↓, Hachadi K. ↑,
73', Duarte E. ↓, Joel ↑,
76', Soares P. 🟨,
77', Nuninho ↓, Roka ↑,
77', Duarte D. ↓, Doukoure H. ↑,
78', Daniel J. 🟨,
79', Cunha G. 🟨,
81', Doukoure H. 🟨,
85', Carvalho D. 🟥,
88', Soares P. ↓, Garro L. ↑,
88', Matos T. ↓, Ze Couto ↑,
90+10', 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 8 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

Marco is Liga 3 (Relegation Group )

Trofense is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Marco is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Trofense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Trofense is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Trofense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
10.01.26	Sanjoanense - Trofense	2:4 ✺
04.01.26	Trofense - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Varzim - Trofense	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Fafe - Trofense	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Trofense - Paredes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WLWWT
- AD Marco 09
Portuguese Liga 3
11.01.26	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:3 ✺
04.01.26	Braga B - Marco 09	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Marco 09 - São João de Ver	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Amarante - Marco 09	3:2 ✺
07.12.25	Marco 09 - Fafe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
25.10.25	Marco 09 - Trofense	1:1

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