Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 3

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Municipal de Marco de Canaveses (Marco de Canaveses)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Marco 09		São João de Ver

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.05	3.55
	2.07	3.17	3.95
	2.02	3.21	3.79	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.5
	1.98	3.02	3.77
	2.05	3.05	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.3)	3.07 ↑ (2.88)	3.69 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco 09
45.3%

Draw
29.9%

São João de Ver
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

31.6%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

30.8%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco 09 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marco 09's performance.

São João de Ver has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São João de Ver than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Marco 09 - São João de Ver Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Marco (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Carvalho D. (G) 14. Doukoure H. 10. Duarte D. 11. Mauro Ribeiro 5. Nandinho 3. Pedro M. (C) 88. Silva D. 33. Silva J. 9. Soares P. 2. Sousa B. 95. Sousa V.	65. Didi (G) 6. Barbosa D. 10. Castro J. 7. Erick Gabriel 23. Monteiro J. 4. Morais B. 17. Pereira N. 11. Rai Nascimento 21. Rui Bruno 29. Valente R. 55. Vilela M.
Substitutes
79. Erivaldo 23. Garro L. 27. Guimaraes B. 18. Martins D. 53. Matos T. 6. Pacheco F. 7. Pedro P. 25. Pereira H. 26. Ze Couto (G)	99. Benjamim R. (G) 27. Ca L. 20. Campas T. . Firmino E. 9. Jaramillo J. 16. Jesse 5. Jota 3. Serrao J. 61. Vilela R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', Vilela M. 🟥,
20', Erick Gabriel ↓, Jota ↑,
37', 0 - 1, Rai Nascimento ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 1, Pedro M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', 🟨,
46', Doukoure H. ↓, Guimaraes B. ↑,
58', Silva J. 🟨,
60', Rai Nascimento ↓, Ca L. ↑,
72', Monteiro J. ↓, Jaramillo J. ↑,
72', Castro J. ↓, Campas T. ↑,
72', Pereira N. ↓, Serrao J. ↑,
72', Mauro Ribeiro ↓, Erivaldo ↑,
73', Duarte D. ↓, Garro L. ↑,
74', Jaramillo J. 🟨,
77', 🟨,
82', Barbosa D. 🟨,
83', Sousa B. ↓, Pacheco F. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 1, Erivaldo ⚽,
90+4', 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

Marco is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

São João de Ver has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

São João de Ver may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Marco could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Marco won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Marco won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

São João de Ver - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 28.87%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Marco 09
Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.26	Braga B - Marco 09	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Marco 09 - Varzim	1:3 ✺
18.01.26	Trofense - Marco 09	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLLWL
- São João de Ver
Portuguese Liga 3
21.02.26	São João de Ver - Fafe	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Sanjoanense - São João de Ver	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	São João de Ver - Paredes	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Braga B - São João de Ver	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	São João de Ver - Fafe	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
21.12.25	Marco 09 - São João de Ver	2:1
24.09.25	São João de Ver - Marco 09	0:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
11.02.24	Marco 09 - São João de Ver	0:0
08.10.23	São João de Ver - Marco 09	1:0

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