Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 17

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Willie Davids (Maringá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Maringá		Retrô Brasil

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.82	3	4.2
	1.62	3.3	4.95	Watch
	1.75	3.55	5.5
	1.85	2.9	4
	1.63	3.38	5.28	Watch
	1.67	3.38	4.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.75)	3.25 (3.25)	4.8 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maringá
52.9%

Draw
28.1%

Retrô Brasil
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

28.1%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

23.1%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Retrô Brasil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maringá that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Retrô Brasil than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Retrô Brasil could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Maringá - Retrô Brasil Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Maringá will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Maringá (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Maringá (1.76) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Maringá (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Retrô (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tony Batista (G) 30. Danielzinho 7. Edison Negueba 5. Evanderson 40. Everton Morelli 34. Luiz Fernando 99. Maranhao 23. Max Miller 3. Ronald Carvalho (C) 31. Thiago Rosa 18. Ze Vitor	12. Fabian Volpi (G) 7. Fabinho (C) 14. Felipe Ferreira 18. Franco R. 20. Gledson 28. Joao Lucas 26. Ly I. 19. Rayne Assis 3. Robson Reis 15. Tales 99. Vagner Love
Substitutes
20. Bruno Cheron 14. Buga 32. Caua Tavares 4. Jhow Alecxander 19. Julio Rodrigues 16. Matheus Melo 25. Neto (G) 15. Parrudo 29. Rai Natalino 22. Raphinha 11. Robertinho 36. Vinicius Amaral	1. Darley (G) 24. David Lucas (G) 25. Eduardo 6. Gustavo Salomao 11. Junior Fialho 16. Luquinhas 9. Mascote 30. Maycon Douglas 29. Mendonca 27. Mike 23. Paulo Gianezini (G) 8. Radsley 5. Romulo
Coaches
Casarin R.	Schulle I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Danielzinho 🟨,
30', Gledson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Luquinhas ↓, Esquerdinha ↑,
46', Joao Lucas ↓, Fabinho ↑,
52', Fabinho 🟨,
56', Radsley 🟨,
61', Diego Guerra ↓, Vagner Love ↑,
62', Danielzinho ↓, Bruno Cheron ↑,
70', Mendonca ↓, Robson Reis ↑,
72', Evanderson ↓, Julio Rodrigues ↑,
72', Luiz Fernando ↓, Robertinho ↑,
82', Tales ↓, Bruno Marques ↑,
85', 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 0, ⚽,
90+5', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,
90+8', 🟨,
90+9', 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

Maringá has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Retrô is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Maringá may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Maringá is a strong favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maringá FC
Brazilian Serie C
11.08.25	Figueirense - Maringá	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Maringá - Floresta	1:1 ✺
28.07.25	Tombense - Maringá	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	ABC - Maringá	3:3 ✺
14.07.25	Maringá - Brusque	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TTTTL
- Retrô Brasil
Brazilian Serie C
10.08.25	Retrô Brasil - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Retrô Brasil - Bahia	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
03.08.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.07.25	Bahia - Retrô Brasil	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
26.07.25	Retrô Brasil - Ypiranga	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LTLLT

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