Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 14

Date: 28 July 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida (Tombos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Tombense		Maringá

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.45	2.95	2.6
	2.48	2.92	2.72	Watch
	2.61	3.05	2.74
	3.11	3.07	2.34	Watch
	2.6	2.8	2.7
	2.56	2.91	2.66	Watch
	2.16	3.1	3.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.13)	2.97 ↓ (3.08)	2.71 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tombense
35.6%

Draw
30.7%

Maringá
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

29.4%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

28.6%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tombense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tombense's form might have worsened.

Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Maringá's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tombense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Maringá, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tombense - Maringá Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Maringá (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Tombense (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tombense (votes: 1 - 50%). Maringá (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 7. Fabricio Dias 3. Ianson 10. Jefferson Renan 11. Joao Pedro 6. Kaike 2. Leo Pereira 8. Lucas Mila 9. Rafael Silva 5. Rickson 4. Roger Carvalho (C)	1. Tony Batista (G) 14. Buga 30. Danielzinho 5. Evanderson 40. Everton Morelli 99. Maranhao 23. Max Miller 11. Robertinho 3. Ronald Carvalho (C) 13. Tito 18. Ze Vitor
Substitutes
22. Adson 17. Andre Cardoso 18. Cleiton 12. Douglas Marques (G) 16. Dudu Mandai 14. Fernando 15. Joao Vitor 21. Julio Henrique 25. Jupi 20. Pedro Oliveira 13. Wesley 19. Ze Eduardo	20. Bruno Cheron 34. Fernando 27. Ibson 4. Jhow Alecxander 6. Joao Felix 19. Julio Rodrigues 37. Masukake Y. 16. Matheus Melo 25. Neto (G) 29. Rai Natalino 36. Vinicius Amaral
Coaches
Marcelo Chamusca	Jorge Castilho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Lucas Mila 🟨,
23', Everton Morelli 🟨,
27', Max Miller 🟨,
34', Leo Pereira ↓, Julio Henrique ↑,
45', Ronald Carvalho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', 0 - 1, Ze Vitor ⚽,
65', Fabricio Dias ↓, Pedro Oliveira ↑,
65', Lucas Mila ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
65', Rafael Silva ↓, Ze Eduardo ↑,
69', Ianson ↓, Fernando ↑,
71', Danielzinho ↓, Jhow Alecxander ↑,
74', Ronald Carvalho 🟨,
74', 🟨,
76', Fernando 🟨,
78', Ze Vitor ↓, Vinicius Amaral ↑,
79', Maranhao ↓, Julio Rodrigues ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Pedro Oliveira (Pen),
84', Buga ↓, Joao Felix ↑,
90', Joao Felix 🟨,
90+1', Kaike 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 16).

Tombense has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Maringá has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Maringá may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie C
20.07.25	Confiança - Tombense	3:2 ✺
12.07.25	Tombense - ABC	1:2 ✺
07.07.25	Ponte Preta - Tombense	1:0 ✺
29.06.25	Tombense - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 ✺
15.06.25	Brusque - Tombense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLLT
- Maringá FC
Brazilian Serie C
19.07.25	ABC - Maringá	3:3 ✺
14.07.25	Maringá - Brusque	0:2 ✺
06.07.25	Ypiranga - Maringá	0:0 ✺
28.06.25	Maringá - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
16.06.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Maringá	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLTLL

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