Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 16

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande (Leiria)


	Marinhense		Fatima

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.92	2.98
	2.19	3.04	3.06
	2.23	3.09	3.11	Watch
	2.3	2.8	2.9
	2.23	3	3.13
	2.2	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.05)	2.98 ↓ (3.18)	3.05 ↓ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Marinhense
40.1%

Draw
30.3%

Fatima
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

28.4%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

28.6%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marinhense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Fatima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marinhense than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fatima than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Marinhense - Fatima Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, ⚽,
40', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+3', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 11 in the zone Relegation and 7).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Marinhense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marinhense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Marinhense won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Fatima	4	1	1	2	6:5	1	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Marinhense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
17.01.26	Samora Correia - Marinhense	0:2 ✺
10.01.26	Marinhense - Peniche	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Marinhense - Oliveira Hospital	0:3 ✺
13.12.25	Lajense - Marinhense	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	SC Lusitânia - Marinhense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTLLT
- CD Fatima
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
18.01.26	Fatima - SC Lusitânia	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	União da Serra - Fatima	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	SB Castelo Branco - Fatima	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Fatima - Eléctrico	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Vitória de Sernache - Fatima	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
24.08.25	Fatima - Marinhense	1:1
09.02.25	Fatima - Marinhense	1:0
29.09.24	Marinhense - Fatima	2:2
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
15.11.19	Marinhense - Fatima	1:0
Taça de Portugal
20.10.19	Marinhense - Fatima	1:0

Marinhense - Fatima: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide