Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Top 6 - Round 29

Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Ta'Qali National Stadium (Ta' Qali)

Referee: De Gabriele M. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Marsaxlokk		Floriana

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.25	1.92	Watch
	3.78	3.39	1.91
	3.7	3.53	1.88	Watch
	3.4	3.25	1.95
	3.72	3.32	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.62 ↑ (3.15)	3.35 ↑ (3.2)	1.91 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marsaxlokk
25.1%

Draw
27.2%

Floriana
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

28.1%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

27.9%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marsaxlokk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Floriana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Floriana than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Marsaxlokk - Floriana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Mafoumbi C. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 16. Arias U. 7. Christie-Davies I. 11. Corbalan J. C. 17. Dodo 4. El Hasni O. 9. Linden R. 6. Muscat N. (C) 5. Pepe E. 33. Simkus D.	23. Cioletti G. (G) 94. Areias R. 3. Beerman M. 14. Kurtalic A. 88. Mbong P. 34. Mendonca I. 24. M'Mombwa C. 17. Spiteri O. 10. Varela F. 12. Vella D. (C) 21. Zammit Lonardelli C.
Substitutes
14. Attard E. 1. Calleja Cremona M. (G) 23. Caruana T. 18. Galea N. 8. Ghio J. 20. Karamitsios G. 19. Kirby J. 26. Maniscalco M. 28. Mihana R. 12. Vella D. (G) 3. Weder	4. Antonio Lara 22. Chico Teixeira 9. Dervisagic K. 19. Jah M. 15. Mabea K. 13. Micallef A. (G) 2. Miceli D. 1. Picon P. (G) 5. Rodgers G. 11. Scerri Z. 27. Vella Newell Z.
Coaches
Potenza V.	Portela D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', 1 - 0, Dodo ⚽,
13', 1 - 1, Varela F. ⚽,
21', Spiteri O. 🟨,
38', Simkus D. 🟨,
42', 1 - 2, Mbong P. ⚽,
45+1', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', 1 - 3, Varela F. ⚽,
61', Linden R. ↓, Mihana R. ↑,
61', Christie-Davies I. ↓, Kirby J. ↑,
64', Areias R. ↓, Jah M. ↑,
74', Simkus D. ↓, Caruana T. ↑,
75', Kurtalic A. ↓, Dervisagic K. ↑,
75', Zammit Lonardelli C. ↓, Mabea K. ↑,
78', Muscat N. 🟨,
83', Arias U. ↓, Attard E. ↑,
85', M'Mombwa C. ↓, Antonio Lara ↑,
88', Mbong P. ↓, Scerri Z. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marsaxlokk won 0.

In recent matches, Marsaxlokk has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Floriana is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Floriana has had a series of away games.

Floriana might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Marsaxlokk won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 10:24. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Marsaxlokk won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:13. (average 0.7:2.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Floriana	6	4	1	1	16:7	9	13
3	Marsaxlokk	6	3	2	1	11:9	2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Floriana - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 43.28%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
11.04.26	Marsaxlokk - Hamrun Spartans	3:2 ✺
14.03.26	Marsaxlokk - Valletta	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Marsaxlokk - Naxxar Lions	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Mosta - Marsaxlokk	1:2 ✺
23.02.26	Hamrun Spartans - Marsaxlokk	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WTTWL
- Floriana FC
Maltese Premier League
11.04.26	Naxxar Lions - Floriana	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Birkirkara - Floriana	2:2 ✺
07.03.26	Sliema Wanderers - Floriana	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Hamrun Spartans - Floriana	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Floriana - Paola Hibernians	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
18.02.26	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	0:0
Maltese FA Trophy
03.01.26	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	1:0
Maltese Premier League
23.11.25	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	2:1
20.09.25	Marsaxlokk - Floriana	1:2
12.04.25	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	2:1
09.02.25	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	2:1
21.10.24	Marsaxlokk - Floriana	1:1

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