Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Top 6 - Round 32

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Tony Bezzina Stadium (Paola)

Referee: Farrugia P. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Marsaxlokk		Naxxar Lions

	1	X	2
	1.32	4.85	6.9
	1.32	5.54	6.4
	1.33	6.14	5.74	Watch
	1.29	5	7.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.34)	5.38 ↑ (4.61)	6.74 ↓ (8.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marsaxlokk
69.5%

Draw
17%

Naxxar Lions
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.8%

20%

11.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.6%

19%

10.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marsaxlokk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Naxxar Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naxxar Lions than the current prediction. (-3%)

Marsaxlokk - Naxxar Lions Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Mafoumbi C. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 16. Arias U. 11. Corbalan J. C. 17. Dodo 4. El Hasni O. 19. Kirby J. 25. Minala J. 6. Muscat N. (C) 5. Pepe E. 33. Simkus D.	80. Azzopardi J. (G) 13. Bugeja S. 20. Costa Goncalves G. 7. Fenech M. 14. Gauci C. 30. Guehi S. 15. Montero Y. 8. Pace Cocks N. (C) 19. Rosiel 4. Theo Kruger 11. Vitinho
Substitutes
14. Attard E. 1. Calleja Cremona M. (G) 23. Caruana T. 7. Christie-Davies I. 18. Galea N. 8. Ghio J. 20. Karamitsios G. 26. Maniscalco M. 28. Mihana R. 21. Vella J. 3. Weder	17. Bugeja F. 29. Camilleri S. 23. Demicoli N. 44. Genovese L. 22. Kontchou C. 21. Micallef M. 9. Pahama N. 25. Portelli O. 16. Sanchez E. 99. Vella A. (G) 28. Vella T.
Coaches
Potenza V.	Muscat W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, Kirby J. ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Vitinho ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 1, Kirby J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', El Hasni O. ↓, Weder ↑,
46', Vitinho ↓, Sanchez E. ↑,
46', Theo Kruger ↓, Pahama N. ↑,
68', 3 - 1, Muscat N. ⚽,
69', Pace Cocks N. ↓, Kontchou C. ↑,
69', Rosiel ↓, Portelli O. ↑,
75', Kirby J. ↓, Caruana T. ↑,
75', Muscat N. ↓, Christie-Davies I. ↑,
85', Simkus D. ↓, Vella J. ↑,
85', Arias U. ↓, Attard E. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marsaxlokk won 1.

Marsaxlokk is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Naxxar's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Marsaxlokk has had a series of home games.

In this match, Marsaxlokk is the team to beat.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Marsaxlokk won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:6. (average 1.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Marsaxlokk won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 2:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marsaxlokk	6	3	2	1	11:9	2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Naxxar Lions - the odds 8.22 are the expected chance of winning is 11.21%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
26.04.26	Marsaxlokk - Valletta	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Marsaxlokk - Gżira United	2:1 ✺
15.04.26	Marsaxlokk - Floriana	1:3 ✺
11.04.26	Marsaxlokk - Hamrun Spartans	3:2 ✺
14.03.26	Marsaxlokk - Valletta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWLWT
- Naxxar Lions
Maltese Premier League
26.04.26	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Hamrun Spartans - Naxxar Lions	3:0 ✺
15.04.26	Naxxar Lions - Valletta	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Naxxar Lions - Floriana	0:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.04.26	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
08.03.26	Marsaxlokk - Naxxar Lions	1:1
24.08.25	Naxxar Lions - Marsaxlokk	0:1
13.03.25	Naxxar Lions - Marsaxlokk	1:0
15.12.24	Marsaxlokk - Naxxar Lions	1:1
27.10.24	Naxxar Lions - Marsaxlokk	0:0
28.01.24	Naxxar Lions - Marsaxlokk	0:0
15.09.23	Marsaxlokk - Naxxar Lions	5:1

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