Match Info

Premier League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Ta'Qali National Stadium (Ta' Qali)

Referee: Tonna G. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Marsaxlokk		Hamrun Spartans

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.44	3.14	1.87
	4.3	3.22	1.84	Watch
	4.06	3.44	1.77
	1.94	3.4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.69 ↑ (1.94)	3.3 ↓ (3.4)	2.27 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marsaxlokk
26.7%

Draw
29.9%

Hamrun Spartans
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

27%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

26.8%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marsaxlokk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marsaxlokk's form might have worsened.

Hamrun Spartans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hamrun Spartans's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (+20.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marsaxlokk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamrun Spartans than the current prediction. (-17.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hamrun Spartans, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Marsaxlokk - Hamrun Spartans Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Hamrun will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Mafoumbi C. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 16. Arias U. 11. Corbalan J. C. 17. Dodo 28. Mihana R. 25. Minala J. 6. Muscat N. (C) 5. Pepe E. 33. Simkus D. 3. Weder	1. Bonello H. (G) 24. Ceter D. 25. Ederson 91. Emerson 8. Garcia M. 6. Guillaumier M. 10. Mbong J. 13. Polito V. 2. Rafael Compri 17. Serber K. 5. Xerri S.
Coaches
Potenza V.	Modica G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, Minala J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ederson ↓, Jonny ↑,
56', Garcia M. 🟨,
64', Mafoumbi C. 🟨,
65', Minala J. 🟨,
74', 🟨,
74', Simkus D. 🟨,
85', 🟨,
86', 🟨,
89', 1 - 1, Garcia M. ⚽,
90+6', Xerri S. 🟨,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
98', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamrun won 3.

Hamrun has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Marsaxlokk is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Marsaxlokk has had a series of home games.

Hamrun is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Hamrun won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamrun won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.4:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marsaxlokk	6	3	2	1	11:9	2	11
5	Hamrun	6	3	1	2	9:6	3	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
02.05.26	Marsaxlokk - Naxxar Lions	3:2 ✺
26.04.26	Marsaxlokk - Valletta	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Marsaxlokk - Gżira United	2:1 ✺
15.04.26	Marsaxlokk - Floriana	1:3 ✺
11.04.26	Marsaxlokk - Hamrun Spartans	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WWWLW
- Hamrun Spartans
Maltese Premier League
02.05.26	Valletta - Hamrun Spartans	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Floriana - Hamrun Spartans	1:4 ✺
19.04.26	Hamrun Spartans - Naxxar Lions	3:0 ✺
15.04.26	Hamrun Spartans - Gżira United	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Marsaxlokk - Hamrun Spartans	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
11.04.26	Marsaxlokk - Hamrun Spartans	3:2
23.02.26	Hamrun Spartans - Marsaxlokk	2:0
14.12.25	Hamrun Spartans - Marsaxlokk	1:3
23.09.25	Marsaxlokk - Hamrun Spartans	0:2
30.04.25	Marsaxlokk - Hamrun Spartans	0:1
05.01.25	Marsaxlokk - Hamrun Spartans	1:6
02.11.24	Hamrun Spartans - Marsaxlokk	2:3

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