Match Info

Paulista A3 - Round 15

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday


	União São João		EC São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	2.85
	2.45	2.92	2.78
	2.56	2.76	2.84
	2.56	2.86	2.85	Watch
	2.5	2.7	2.8
	2.5	2.81	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.51)	2.86 ↓ (3.07)	2.82 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União São João
36.6%

Draw
31.5%

EC São Bernardo
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

29.8%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

29%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União São João has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

EC São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União São João than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+1%)

União São João - EC São Bernardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Michael Douglas ⚽,
45', 1 - 1, Rafael Costa (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
74', 2 - 1, Alex Oliveira ⚽,
89', 2 - 2, Udson ⚽,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

União São João is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

EC São Bernardo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, União São João won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, União São João won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União São João de Araras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
14.03.26	Paulista - União São João	3:0 ✺
11.03.26	União São João - Francana	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Catanduva - União São João	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	União São João - Portuguesa Santista	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Itapirense - União São João	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LWWWT
- EC São Bernardo
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
15.03.26	EC São Bernardo - Portuguesa Santista	0:3 ✺
11.03.26	Bandeirante - EC São Bernardo	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Itapirense - EC São Bernardo	0:3 ✺
04.03.26	EC São Bernardo - Rio Branco de Americana	4:0 ✺
01.03.26	Rio Claro - EC São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
19.02.25	EC São Bernardo - União São João	1:1
31.01.24	União São João - EC São Bernardo	2:3

União São João - EC São Bernardo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide