Match Info

Date: 11 September 2022, Sunday

Location: Estádio dos Barreiros (Funchal)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Marítimo		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.3	2.6	Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.55
	2.85	2.95	2.65
	2.7	3.2	2.6
	2.82	3.25	2.74
	2.62	3.2	2.62	Watch
	2.73	3.14	2.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↓ (3.02)	3.18 ↑ (3.17)	2.63 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marítimo
34.6%

Draw
29.6%

Gil Vicente
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

29.1%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

29.5%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.3%	32.4%	43.2%

Marítimo - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Marítimo will win (votes: 9 - 24.3%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 16 - 43.2%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 32.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 27.2% – 59.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 13).

Marítimo has the most likely position - 18 (21.06%), has project points - 32, has currently - 0, has a chance of relegated (42%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Gil Vicente has the most likely position - 7 (8.84%), has project points - 43, has currently - 5, has a small chance of relegated (10%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 46, importance 32, match rating 39. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Marítimo won 2.

Marítimo has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Gil Vicente is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Marítimo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Marítimo: Bauque C. (Injury)

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Barros L. (Injury) Kritsyuk S. (Leg Injury) Murilo (Achilles Tendon Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Marítimo won 8 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 21-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Marítimo won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Marítimo
Liga Portugal
04.09.22	Santa Clara - Marítimo	2:1 ✺
27.08.22	Marítimo - Portimonense	0:1 ✺
21.08.22	Braga - Marítimo	5:0 ✺
15.08.22	Marítimo - Chaves	1:2 ✺
06.08.22	Porto - Marítimo	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
03.09.22	Gil Vicente - Porto	0:2 ✺
29.08.22	Vizela - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.08.22	Gil Vicente - AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
22.08.22	Gil Vicente - Famalicão	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.08.22	AZ Alkmaar - Gil Vicente	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
20.03.22	Gil Vicente - Marítimo	1:1
31.10.21	Marítimo - Gil Vicente	1:2
05.05.21	Marítimo - Gil Vicente	0:1
17.01.21	Gil Vicente - Marítimo	0:1
15.06.20	Marítimo - Gil Vicente	2:1
03.11.19	Gil Vicente - Marítimo	2:0
Club Friendly
15.07.17	Marítimo - Gil Vicente	2:0

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