Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 30

Date: 29 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Estádio dos Barreiros (Funchal)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Marítimo		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.3	3.1	Watch
	2.37	3.2	2.95
	2.45	3.15	2.8
	2.43	3.39	3.11
	2.35	3.2	3
	2.4	3.24	3.05	Watch
	2.35	3.25	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.65)	3.25 ↑ (3.15)	3.03 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marítimo
39.7%

Draw
29.1%

Vitoria Guimarães
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

29.6%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

28.5%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marítimo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitoria Guimarães could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Marítimo - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Marítimo will win (votes: 12 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marítimo: 59.8% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 7).

Marítimo has the most likely position - 16 (71.08%), project points - 27, currently - 22, a chance of relegated (42%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

Guimarães has the most likely position - 7 (21.12%), project points - 47, currently - 41, not chance of relegated, not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 45, small importance 18, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Marítimo won 0.

Recent matches Marítimo is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Guimarães has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Guimarães could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Marítimo: Beltrame S. (Injury) Costa E. (Red Card) Trmal M. (Injury)

There will not play in Guimarães: Fonseca Amaro A. (Injury) Gaspar B. (Red Card)

Last 23 head-to-head matches Marítimo won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 13 matches and goals 22-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Marítimo won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Marítimo
Liga Portugal
22.04.23	Famalicão - Marítimo	3:2 ✺
15.04.23	Marítimo - Paços de Ferreira	3:1 ✺
08.04.23	Arouca - Marítimo	1:0 ✺
02.04.23	Marítimo - Boavista	4:2 ✺
19.03.23	Casa Pia - Marítimo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLWL
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
24.04.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	0:2 ✺
14.04.23	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1 ✺
07.04.23	Boavista - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1 ✺
01.04.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Paços de Ferreira	0:0 ✺
18.03.23	Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
13.11.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Marítimo	1:0
13.03.22	Marítimo - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1
22.10.21	Vitoria Guimarães - Marítimo	2:1
16.05.21	Marítimo - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0
31.01.21	Vitoria Guimarães - Marítimo	1:0
19.07.20	Vitoria Guimarães - Marítimo	1:0
12.01.20	Marítimo - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0

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