Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 42

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday


	Matlock Town		Lancaster City

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.5	2.9
	2.03	3.6	3.05
	2.06	3.75	3.13
	2.08	3.71	3.17	Watch
	2.04	3.5	3.1
	2.03	3.6	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.22)	3.61 ↑ (3.54)	3.07 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matlock Town
44.7%

Draw
25.4%

Lancaster City
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

25.8%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

24.5%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matlock Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Lancaster City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matlock Town than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Matlock Town - Lancaster City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Mansell L. ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 1, Gibson M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 17).

Matlock is Relegated to

Last 5 head-to-head matches Matlock won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Matlock will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Matlock won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 17:12 (average 1.4:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Matlock won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:5 (average 2.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matlock Town
English NPL Premier Division
21.04.25	Ilkeston - Matlock Town	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Matlock Town - Worksop Town	1:2 ✺
12.04.25	Hyde United - Matlock Town	0:4 ✺
05.04.25	Matlock Town - Morpeth Town	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Guiseley - Matlock Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TLWLT
- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
21.04.25	Lancaster City - Bamber Bridge	1:4 ✺
19.04.25	Warrington Rylands - Lancaster City	0:2 ✺
12.04.25	Lancaster City - Blyth Spartans	3:2 ✺
05.04.25	Lancaster City - Whitby Town	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	Worksop Town - Lancaster City	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
24.08.24	Lancaster City - Matlock Town	1:1
09.03.24	Matlock Town - Lancaster City	2:1
03.02.24	Lancaster City - Matlock Town	1:0
28.01.23	Lancaster City - Matlock Town	2:1
24.09.22	Matlock Town - Lancaster City	1:0
05.02.22	Matlock Town - Lancaster City	0:1
23.10.21	Lancaster City - Matlock Town	0:2

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