Match Info

J3 League - Round 38

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Giravanz Kitakyushu

	1	X	2
	2.98	3.45	2.08	Watch
	2.81	3.7	2.17
	2.73	3.02	2.63	Watch
	2.85	3.72	2.23	Watch
	2.8	3.6	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.73)	3.5 ↑ (3.02)	2.25 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
32.6%

Draw
26.4%

Giravanz Kitakyushu
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

30.7%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

30.7%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Giravanz Kitakyushu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Giravanz Kitakyushu's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Giravanz Kitakyushu than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Giravanz Kitakyushu, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Matsumoto Yamaga - Giravanz Kitakyushu Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Matsumoto Yamaga will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Giravanz will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ouchi I. (G) 44. Nonomura T. 19. Sugita H. 16. Miyabe T. 24. Ogawa D. 15. Yamamoto K. 18. Ohashi H. 40. Higuchi D. 41. Murakoshi K. 10. Kikui Y. 14. Ando T.	27. Tanaka Y. (G) 22. Yamawaki K. 50. Sugiyama K. 44. Tsujioka Y. 6. Hoshi K. 34. Takayoshi S. 14. Izawa H. 20. Yada A. 17. Okano R. 49. Komazawa N. 10. Nagai R.
Substitutes
43. Hayashi M. 35. Kanda S. (G) 25. Kawakami K. 20. Maeda R. 36. Matsumura G. 7. Mawatari K. 42. Tanaka S. 17. Yamamoto R. 46. Yasunaga R.	4. Hasegawa K. 11. Kiyama K. 29. Koh S. 28. Konomi K. 41. Sugimoto M. (G) 66. Takahashi D. 32. Takayanagi F. 18. Watanabe S. 24. Yoshinaga M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Komazawa N. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Murakoshi K. ⚽, Ando T. (A),
33', Nagai R. ↓, Koh S. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ushinohama T. ↓, Takahashi D. ↑,
51', Ohashi H. 🟨,
54', Ando T. 🟨,
60', 2 - 1, Miyabe T. ⚽,
61', Hoshi K. ↓, Konomi K. ↑,
61', Komazawa N. ↓, Watanabe S. ↑,
62', Kikui Y. ↓, Hayashi M. ↑,
62', Ohashi H. ↓, Yasunaga R. ↑,
66', Hayashi M. 🟨,
73', Izawa H. 🟨,
80', Okano R. ↓, Yoshinaga M. ↑,
82', Ando T. ↓, Maeda R. ↑,
82', Ogawa D. ↓, Mawatari K. ↑,
90+4', Murakoshi K. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 3.

Matsumoto Yamaga has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Giravanz has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Giravanz will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:12. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Matsumoto Yamaga won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Giravanz Kitakyushu - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.28%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
23.11.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Matsumoto Yamaga	6:2 ✺
16.11.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Kochi United - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:1 ✺
05.11.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Kagoshima United - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTWLL
- Giravanz Kitakyushu
Japan J3 League
23.11.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Zweigen Kanazawa	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Gainare Tottori - Giravanz Kitakyushu	3:2 ✺
09.11.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Fukushima United	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Ryūkyū	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
26.04.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2
20.07.24	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0
18.05.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:1
05.11.23	Matsumoto Yamaga - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:0
09.04.23	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Matsumoto Yamaga	2:4
21.08.22	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:1
04.05.22	Matsumoto Yamaga - Giravanz Kitakyushu	0:0

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