Match Info

J3 League - Round 33

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Kamatamare Sanuki

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.15	3	Watch
	2.2	3.35	3.07
	2.27	3.32	2.99	Watch
	2.21	3.36	3.15	Watch
	2.24	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.27)	3.26 ↑ (3.15)	3.04 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
41.5%

Draw
28.2%

Kamatamare Sanuki
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

28.9%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

26.3%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Kamatamare Sanuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kamatamare Sanuki than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Matsumoto Yamaga - Kamatamare Sanuki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ouchi I. (G) 44. Nonomura T. 19. Sugita H. 16. Miyabe T. 24. Ogawa D. 15. Yamamoto K. 46. Yasunaga R. 17. Yamamoto R. 22. Saso K. 23. Taki Y. 43. Hayashi M.	41. Iida M. (G) 2. Uchida M. 44. Hayashida K. 99. Tsukegi Y. 18. Miyaichi T. 7. Eguchi N. 15. Iwamoto K. 24. Ueno A. 17. Makiyama K. 13. Maekawa T. 10. Kawanishi S.
Substitutes
14. Ando T. 40. Higuchi D. 35. Kanda S. (G) 25. Kawakami K. 30. Kokubu R. 36. Matsumura G. 7. Mawatari K. 41. Murakoshi K. 42. Tanaka S.	11. Eduardo 1. Imamura Y. (G) 5. Komatsu T. 88. Matsumoto K. 60. Morikawa Y. 30. Niwa S. 21. Noh S. 35. Sago S. 96. Yoshida J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 1 - 0, Nonomura T. ⚽,
66', Ogawa D. ↓, Higuchi D. ↑,
68', Eguchi N. ↓, Yoshida J. ↑,
68', Maekawa T. ↓, Niwa S. ↑,
69', Makiyama K. ↓, Morikawa Y. ↑,
75', Miyaichi T. ↓, Eduardo ↑,
75', Iwamoto K. ↓, Noh S. ↑,
78', Saso K. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
78', Taki Y. ↓, Murakoshi K. ↑,
83', Murakoshi K. 🟨,
90', Niwa S. 🟨,
90+1', Hayashi M. ↓, Ando T. ↑,
90+2', Yasunaga R. ↓, Kawakami K. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Kawanishi S. ⚽,
90+7', Ouchi I. 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 15 and 19 in the zone J3 League (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 4.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Matsumoto Yamaga might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 29:7. (average 1.9:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Matsumoto Yamaga won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 1.4:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Kamatamare Sanuki - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 31.05%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
19.10.25	Sagamihara - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
15.10.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Fukushima United - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
28.09.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Tochigi	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Azul Claro Numazu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLTW
- Kamatamare Sanuki
Japan J3 League
19.10.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:4 ✺
13.10.25	Nagano Parceiro - Kamatamare Sanuki	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:5 ✺
27.09.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Kamatamare Sanuki	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Sagamihara	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
13.04.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:2
22.09.24	Kamatamare Sanuki - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:4
20.04.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kamatamare Sanuki	2:1
26.11.23	Kamatamare Sanuki - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0
17.06.23	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kamatamare Sanuki	2:0
27.08.22	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kamatamare Sanuki	1:0
13.03.22	Kamatamare Sanuki - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2

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