Match Info

J3 League - Round 32

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Sagamihara Gion Stadium (Sagamihara)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagamihara		Matsumoto Yamaga

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.4	3.05	2.72
	2.46	3.25	2.87
	2.46	3.20	2.80	Watch
	2.45	3.22	2.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.52)	3.18 ↑ (3.07)	2.81 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagamihara
37.9%

Draw
29.1%

Matsumoto Yamaga
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

29.4%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

28.8%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagamihara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagamihara than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Sagamihara - Matsumoto Yamaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Sagamihara will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Matsumoto Yamaga will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
46. Baumann N. (G) 2. Kato D. 20. Yamauchi R. 54. Watahiki K. 26. Nishikubo S. 6. Tokunaga Y. 27. Nishiyama T. 7. Kawano R. 10. Nakayama R. 24. Sugimoto R. 14. Takagi A.	1. Ouchi I. (G) 24. Ogawa D. 44. Nonomura T. 19. Sugita H. 16. Miyabe T. 22. Saso K. 15. Yamamoto K. 46. Yasunaga R. 40. Higuchi D. 43. Hayashi M. 23. Taki Y.
Substitutes
22. Fukui K. 31. Inose K. (G) 18. Miki K. 11. Muto Y. 36. Nakashio D. 8. Osako R. 9. Rafael Furtado 4. Shimakawa T. 16. Takano R.	14. Ando T. 35. Kanda S. (G) 25. Kawakami K. 20. Maeda R. 36. Matsumura G. 7. Mawatari K. 18. Ohashi H. 42. Tanaka S. 17. Yamamoto R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Kawano R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', 1 - 0, Nakayama R. ⚽, Sugimoto R. (A),
64', Saso K. ↓, Maeda R. ↑,
64', Miyabe T. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
75', Nakayama R. ↓, Fukui K. ↑,
78', Ogawa D. ↓, Mawatari K. ↑,
78', Higuchi D. ↓, Yamamoto R. ↑,
80', Tokunaga Y. ↓, Shimakawa T. ↑,
80', Takagi A. ↓, Rafael Furtado ↑,
80', Sugimoto R. ↓, Osako R. ↑,
86', Taki Y. ↓, Ando T. ↑,
89', Kawano R. ↓, Nakashio D. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sagamihara won 1.

Sagamihara is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Matsumoto Yamaga has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sagamihara may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Sagamihara won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 11:22. (average 1.2:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Sagamihara won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1.3:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Matsumoto Yamaga - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 34.83%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Sagamihara
Japan J3 League
12.10.25	Gainare Tottori - Sagamihara	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Sagamihara - Vanraure Hachinohe	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Sagamihara	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Sagamihara	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Sagamihara - Gifu	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLTLL
- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
15.10.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Fukushima United - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
28.09.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Tochigi	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Azul Claro Numazu	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Tochigi City - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
23.03.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	2:0
17.08.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	3:2
22.06.24	Sagamihara - Matsumoto Yamaga	3:2
28.10.23	Sagamihara - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:2
03.06.23	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	5:3
20.11.22	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagamihara	1:0
03.04.22	Sagamihara - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:4

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