Match Info

J3 League - Round 11

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Zweigen Kanazawa

	1	X	2
	2.95	3.1	2.15
	3.05	3.2	2.18
	3.06	3.51	2.25
	3.16	3.32	2.24	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.2
	3.06	3.2	2.18	Watch
	3.05	3.2	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.38)	3.2 (3.2)	2.2 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
29.9%

Draw
28.5%

Zweigen Kanazawa
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

28.2%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

30.2%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matsumoto Yamaga's form might have worsened.

Zweigen Kanazawa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Zweigen Kanazawa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matsumoto Yamaga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zweigen Kanazawa than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zweigen Kanazawa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Matsumoto Yamaga - Zweigen Kanazawa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ouchi I. (G) 44. Nonomura T. 27. Ninomiya J. 36. Matsumura G. 24. Ogawa D. 15. Yamamoto K. 18. Ohashi H. 17. Yamamoto R. 22. Saso K. 10. Kikui Y. 42. Tanaka S.	21. Yamanoi T. (G) 4. Matsumoto D. 38. Yamamoto N. 20. Nagakura H. 14. Ishihara T. 15. Nishiya Y. 8. Oyama K. 23. Shinomiya Y. 49. Osawa T. 24. Nishiya K. 10. Patric
Substitutes
11. Asakawa H. 40. Higuchi D. 49. Homma J. 13. Ishiyama A. 33. Kim J. H. (G) 30. Kokubu R. 16. Miyabe T. 41. Murakoshi K. 46. Yasunaga R.	25. Kojima M. 29. Miyazaki K. 30. Otani H. 41. Shimada S. 1. Shirai Y. (G) 39. Shoji H. 11. Sugiura K. 9. Toshida Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 1 - 0, Tanaka S. ⚽, Kikui Y. (A),
38', 1 - 1, Nagakura H. ⚽, Patric (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 2 - 1, Tanaka S. ⚽, Yamamoto K. (A),
56', Nonomura T. 🟨,
65', Saso K. ↓, Murakoshi K. ↑,
65', Yamamoto R. ↓, Higuchi D. ↑,
66', Ogawa D. 🟨,
72', Shinomiya Y. ↓, Otani H. ↑,
72', Ishihara T. ↓, Kojima M. ↑,
72', Osawa T. ↓, Sugiura K. ↑,
81', Ohashi H. 🟨,
81', Ogawa D. ↓, Miyabe T. ↑,
81', Yamamoto K. ↓, Yasunaga R. ↑,
83', Patric ↓, Toshida Y. ↑,
84', Matsumoto D. 🟨,
88', Oyama K. ↓, Shimada S. ↑,
88', Ohashi H. ↓, Kokubu R. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 0.

Matsumoto Yamaga has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kanazawa is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Matsumoto Yamaga won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 26:12. (average 2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Matsumoto Yamaga won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:5. (average 2.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
26.04.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:2 ✺
20.04.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Tochigi City	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.04.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Albirex Niigata	0:2 ✺
Japan J3 League
05.04.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kochi United	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWLL
- Zweigen Kanazawa
Japan J3 League
27.04.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Zweigen Kanazawa	2:0 ✺
20.04.25	Tochigi - Zweigen Kanazawa	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Nara Club	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Gainare Tottori - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Nagano Parceiro	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
13.10.24	Matsumoto Yamaga - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:1
06.04.24	Zweigen Kanazawa - Matsumoto Yamaga	6:1
Japan J2 League
19.09.21	Zweigen Kanazawa - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:1
15.05.21	Matsumoto Yamaga - Zweigen Kanazawa	0:0
30.09.20	Matsumoto Yamaga - Zweigen Kanazawa	0:1
27.06.20	Zweigen Kanazawa - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0
14.10.18	Zweigen Kanazawa - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:2

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