Match Info

J3 League - Round 10

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Sunpro Alwin (Matsumoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Matsumoto Yamaga		Tochigi City

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.2	2.3
	2.7	3.3	2.35
	2.67	3.49	2.48
	2.71	3.45	2.46	Watch
	2.62	3.1	2.38
	2.6	3.3	2.38	Watch
	2.7	3.3	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.23)	3.31 ↓ (3.35)	2.39 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matsumoto Yamaga
34.3%

Draw
27.6%

Tochigi City
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

27%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

27.8%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matsumoto Yamaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matsumoto Yamaga's form might have worsened.

Tochigi City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tochigi City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matsumoto Yamaga than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matsumoto Yamaga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi City than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tochigi City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Matsumoto Yamaga - Tochigi City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ouchi I. (G) 44. Nonomura T. 27. Ninomiya J. 36. Matsumura G. 24. Ogawa D. 18. Ohashi H. 15. Yamamoto K. 17. Yamamoto R. 22. Saso K. 10. Kikui Y. 42. Tanaka S.	31. Aizawa P. (G) 22. Suzuki H. 28. Konishi K. 15. Sato Y. 5. Okui R. 10. Okaniwa Y. 20. Tosa R. 14. Sekino G. 77. Tanaka P. J. 99. Hiraoka M. 7. Suzuki R.
Substitutes
11. Asakawa H. 40. Higuchi D. 49. Homma J. 13. Ishiyama A. 33. Kim J. H. (G) 30. Kokubu R. 16. Miyabe T. 41. Murakoshi K. 46. Yasunaga R.	2. Carlos Eduardo 17. Fujiwara T. 1. Harada Y. (G) 33. Inui T. 16. Kato Jo 8. Mori T. 40. Suzuki K. 90. Utaka P. 26. Utsugi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Hiraoka M. 🟨,
57', Saso K. ↓, Murakoshi K. ↑,
59', Hiraoka M. ↓, Utaka P. ↑,
59', Suzuki R. ↓, Suzuki K. ↑,
63', 0 - 1, Tanaka P. J. ⚽,
66', Tanaka S. ↓, Asakawa H. ↑,
66', Yamamoto K. ↓, Yasunaga R. ↑,
74', Tanaka P. J. ↓, Mori T. ↑,
77', Ogawa D. ↓, Homma J. ↑,
90+1', Sekino G. ↓, Utsugi S. ↑,
90+1', Tosa R. ↓, Kato Jo ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matsumoto Yamaga
Japan J3 League
13.04.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.04.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Albirex Niigata	0:2 ✺
Japan J3 League
05.04.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Kochi United	0:5 ✺
29.03.25	Gifu - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WLLTW
- Tochigi City FC
Japan J3 League
13.04.25	Kochi United - Tochigi City	0:5 ✺
06.04.25	Tochigi City - Fukushima United	2:2 ✺
30.03.25	Tochigi - Tochigi City	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Tochigi City	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
20.03.25	Tochigi City - Kashima Antlers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WTTWL

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