Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio de Mazatlán (Mazatlán)

Referee: Hernandez Andrade K. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Mazatlan		Santos Laguna

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.6	3.05	Watch
	2.18	3.45	3.05
	2.24	3.55	3.28
	2.00	3.65	3.61	Watch
	2.2	3.68	3.17	Watch
	1.83	3.85	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.83)	3.63 ↓ (3.8)	3.32 ↓ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mazatlan
45.3%

Draw
26.1%

Santos Laguna
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

24.4%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

22.8%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mazatlan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mazatlan's form might have worsened.

Santos Laguna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mazatlan than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos Laguna than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Mazatlan - Santos Laguna Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mazatlan (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Mazatlan will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gutierrez D. (C) 15. Colula B. 5. Almada F. 26. Leyva A. 4. Diaz J. 16. Esquivel J. 6. Meraz R. 9. Duarte A. 28. Hernandez D. 90. Fabio Gomes 20. Lainez M.	1. Acevedo C. (G) 4. Abella J. (C) 19. Ortega H. 35. Balanta K. 2. Amione B. 8. Mariscal Murra S. 26. Sordo R. 5. Lopez A. 6. Guemez J. 11. Lozano C. 7. Dajome C.
Substitutes
11. Barcenas Y. 10. Benedetti N. 7. Dudu 8. Fierro S. 2. Garcia J. 199. Gonzalez I. 19. Merolla L. 33. Rodriguez R. (G) 18. Torres A. 14. Zaleta M.	9. Carrillo J. 17. Echeverria E. 23. Gutierrez E. 33. Holguin H. (G) 204. Jimenez T. 24. Medina D. 13. Ocejo Zazueta J. A. 20. Palacios K. 188. Perez J. 21. Villalba F.
Coaches
Siboldi R.	Rodriguez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Meraz R. ⚽,
38', Diaz J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Lozano C. ↓, Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ↑,
46', Abella J. ↓, Villalba F. ↑,
46', Mariscal Murra S. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Lopez A. ⚽, Ocejo Zazueta J. A. (A),
62', Mariscal Murra S. ↓, Palacios K. ↑,
67', Esquivel J. 🟨,
68', Hernandez D. ↓, Barcenas Y. ↑,
68', Duarte A. ↓, Dudu ↑,
70', Meraz R. ↓, Torres A. ↑,
76', 1 - 2, Palacios K. ⚽, Ocejo Zazueta J. A. (A),
83', Diaz J. ↓, Benedetti N. ↑,
84', Sordo R. ↓, Medina D. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 2, Almada F. ⚽, Benedetti N. (A),
90+5', Lopez A. ↓, Gutierrez E. ↑,
90+7', Dajome C. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mazatlan won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Mazatlan will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Mazatlan: Benedetti N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Mazatlan: Dudu (Injury) Herrera A. (Injury) Intriago J. (Hamstring Injury) Moreno Villegas O. F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Santos Laguna: Fagundez F. (Coach's decision) Palacios K. (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Mazatlan won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 11:19. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Mazatlan won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.4:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mazatlan FC
Mexican Liga MX
18.10.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan	2:0 ✺
03.10.25	Mazatlan - Atlético San Luis	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Toluca - Mazatlan	3:1 ✺
23.09.25	Club León - Mazatlan	2:2 ✺
19.09.25	Mazatlan - Atlas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWLTT
- Santos Laguna
Mexican Liga MX
18.10.25	Santos Laguna - Club León	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Club América - Santos Laguna	3:0 ✺
27.09.25	Monterrey - Santos Laguna	1:0 ✺
24.09.25	Santos Laguna - Tijuana	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Santos Laguna - Atlético San Luis	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
14.02.25	Mazatlan - Santos Laguna	1:1
25.10.24	Santos Laguna - Mazatlan	0:0
25.02.24	Santos Laguna - Mazatlan	1:0
23.11.23	Santos Laguna - Mazatlan	2:1
01.11.23	Mazatlan - Santos Laguna	3:1
20.01.23	Mazatlan - Santos Laguna	1:2
Copa por Mexico
23.12.22	Mazatlan - Santos Laguna	2:3

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