Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio de Mazatlán (Mazatlán)

Referee: Garcia L. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Caliente TV, Tubi TV
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Mazatlan		Atlas

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.6	3	Watch
	2.22	3.45	2.98
	2.31	3.54	3.15
	2.32	3.48	2.99	Watch
	2.2	3.65	3.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.45)	3.54 ↑ (3.1)	3.06 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mazatlan
42.2%

Draw
26.8%

Atlas
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

29.1%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

29.4%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mazatlan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mazatlan's performance.

Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mazatlan than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mazatlan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

Mazatlan - Atlas Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Mazatlan will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gutierrez D. (G) 15. Colula B. 5. Almada F. 19. Merolla L. 14. Zaleta M. 16. Esquivel J. 11. Barcenas Y. 10. Benedetti N. (C) 23. Sierra J. 34. Moreno Villegas O. F. 90. Fabio Gomes	12. Vargas C. (G) 3. Gustavo Ferrareis 13. Aguirre G. 4. Mora A. 44. Pier R. 17. Lozano J. 11. Gonzalez D. 26. Rocha A. (C) 27. Rios De Alba V. H. 10. del Prete G. 32. Djurdjevic U.
Substitutes
13. Alcaraz Diaz V. A. (G) 4. Diaz J. 9. Duarte A. 7. Dudu 8. Fierro S. 199. Gonzalez I. 28. Hernandez D. 20. Lainez M. 26. Leyva A. 6. Meraz R.	8. Garcia M. E. 58. Gonzalez A. 199. Hernandez S. 203. Martin J. 5. Matheus Doria 23. Orrantia C. 15. Ramirez P. 14. Ramos C. (G) 218. San Martin J. 192. Serrato J.
Coaches
Siboldi R.	Cocca D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Rocha A. ↓, Ramirez P. ↑,
44', Benedetti N. (Pen),
45+4', Barcenas Y. 🟨,
45+5', Ramirez P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Djurdjevic U. 🟨,
61', Merolla L. 🟨,
66', del Prete G. ↓, Garcia M. E. ↑,
66', Moreno Villegas O. F. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
79', Mora A. 🟨,
79', Esquivel J. ↓, Meraz R. ↑,
82', Rios De Alba V. H. 🟨,
84', Gonzalez D. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
87', 1 - 0, Almada F. ⚽, Merolla L. (A),
90+1', Benedetti N. ↓, Duarte A. ↑,
90+1', Fabio Gomes ↓, Dudu ↑,
90+13', 1 - 1, Djurdjevic U. (Pen),

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mazatlan won 3.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Mazatlan is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Mazatlan: Herrera A. (Injury)

There will not play in Atlas: Aguirre E. (Muscle Injury) Coccaro M. (Red Card) Cruz C. (Knee Injury) Manotas M. (Knee Injury) Ortega E. (Suspended) Rodriguez J. (Injury) Zaldivar E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Mazatlan: Diaz J. (Shoulder Injury) Intriago J. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Mazatlan won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mazatlan won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 1.4:0.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Mazatlan - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 36.83%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mazatlan FC
Mexican Liga MX
12.09.25	Mazatlan - UNAM	1:4 ✺
29.08.25	Juárez - Mazatlan	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Mazatlan - Tigres UANL	2:2 ✺
17.08.25	Monterrey - Mazatlan	3:2 ✺
09.08.25	Mazatlan - Tijuana	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTLT
- Club Atlas
Mexican Liga MX
13.09.25	Atlas - Santos Laguna	2:2 ✺
31.08.25	UNAM - Atlas	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Atlas - Club América	2:4 ✺
17.08.25	Querétaro - Atlas	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Atlas - Pachuca	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
28.03.25	Mazatlan - Atlas	3:2
18.10.24	Atlas - Mazatlan	0:0
09.02.24	Mazatlan - Atlas	2:0
Club Friendly
30.12.23	Atlas - Mazatlan	1:0
Mexican Liga MX
20.10.23	Atlas - Mazatlan	1:3
12.01.23	Atlas - Mazatlan	2:1
Copa por Mexico
20.12.22	Atlas - Mazatlan	2:1

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