Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 14

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki		Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	1.63	3.90	4.00
	1.68	3.75	3.8
	1.61	3.99	3.96
	1.65	4.21	4.03	Watch
	1.57	3.9	3.85
	1.61	4.05	4.14	Watch
	1.52	4.1	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.52)	3.99 ↓ (4.1)	4.04 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki
55.5%

Draw
22.4%

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
22.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.5%

21.7%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.4%

20.3%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Parobczyk R. ⚽,
27', 2 - 0, Kobialka M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
72', 3 - 0, Szczutowski A. ⚽,
90+3', 3 - 1, Poplawski K. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A clear contrast in standings as an upper-tier team meets a relegation-threatened side (ranked 5th and 14th).

The recent form of both sides has fallen below expectations.

In this matchup, Mazovia is considered the favorite to take the win.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	7	3	4	33:26	7	24
15	T. Mazowiecki	14	4	2	8	23:30	-7	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
18.10.26	Weszło - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	3:2 ✺
10.10.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Pelikan Łowicz	1:4 ✺
03.10.26	Warta Sieradz - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Wigry Suwałki	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Wisła Płock II	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLTLW
- Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
18.10.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Widzew Łódź II	1:1 ✺
11.10.26	Olimpia Zambrów - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	3:0 ✺
03.10.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Olimpia Elbląg - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
18.09.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLLWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
31.10.26	ŁKS Łomża - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	✺
- Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
31.10.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Wigry Suwałki	✺

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki