Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 10

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday


	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki		Wigry Suwałki

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.50	3.00
	1.98	3.5	3
	1.92	3.78	2.99
	1.97	3.91	3.04	Watch
	1.87	3.7	2.85
	1.98	3.58	3.08	Watch
	2.21	3.41	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.21)	3.63 ↑ (3.41)	2.94 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki
45%

Draw
24.6%

Wigry Suwałki
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

25.9%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

24.7%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Wigry Suwałki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wigry Suwałki than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Wigry Suwałki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Rejterada K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 0 - 2, Kucharczyk O. ⚽,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 2nd in the Promotion ~ Division 2 (Promotion ~ Playoffs and 6th).

Mazovia is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Wigry has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Mazovia could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Mazovia holding a narrow advantage.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Suwalki	11	6	4	1	19:10	9	22
3	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	27:18	9	21

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
19.09.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Wisła Płock II	3:2 ✺
11.09.26	Widzew Łódź II - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	2:3 ✺
05.09.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Olimpia Zambrów	5:0 ✺
29.08.26	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Olimpia Elbląg	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWTT
- Wigry Suwałki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
20.09.26	Wigry Suwałki - Widzew Łódź II	6:3 ✺
12.09.26	Olimpia Zambrów - Wigry Suwałki	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Wigry Suwałki - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	1:3 ✺
Polish Cup
01.09.26	Wigry Suwałki - Termalica Nieciecza	1:5 ✺
Polish Division 3 - Group I
29.08.26	Olimpia Elbląg - Wigry Suwałki	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTLLW

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