Match Info

Premier League - Round 26

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Rwamwanja stadium (Nkoma)


	Mbarara City		Express

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.05	4.05
	1.85	3.29	3.65
	1.87	3.37	3.81	Watch
	1.8	3	4
	1.81	3.3	4.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (1.9)	3.2 ↑ (2.97)	3.92 ↓ (3.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mbarara City
49%

Draw
28.1%

Express
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

30.2%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

31%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mbarara City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Express has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mbarara City than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Express than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Mbarara City - Express Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Kamugisha C. ⚽,
17', 1 - 1, Kimera K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 2 - 1, Amanya I. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation ~ Big League and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mbarara City won 1.

Mbarara City is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Express has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mbarara City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mbarara City is a strong favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Mbarara City won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mbarara City won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.8:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Express	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4
16	Mbarara City	4	0	2	2	0:2	-2	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mbarara City FC
Ugandan Super League
24.04.26	NEC FC - Mbarara City	0:0 ✺
09.04.26	UPDF - Mbarara City	3:1 ✺
13.03.26	Bul - Mbarara City	0:0 ✺
10.03.26	Mbarara City - Kitara	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Mbarara City - Vipers	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 TLTLL
- Express FC
Ugandan Super League
24.04.26	Express - Bul	0:2 ✺
21.04.26	Express - NEC FC	0:0 ✺
15.04.26	UPDF - Express	0:1 ✺
08.04.26	Express - Police	3:1 ✺
Ugandan Cup
05.04.26	Kitara - Express	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Ugandan Super League
05.11.25	Express - Mbarara City	4:1
28.11.24	Express - Mbarara City	3:1
02.02.24	Mbarara City - Express	3:1
23.09.23	Express - Mbarara City	0:0
25.03.22	Mbarara City - Express	0:0
07.12.21	Express - Mbarara City	2:0
17.04.21	Express - Mbarara City	1:1

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