Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 12

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Knights Stadium (Melbourne)


	Melbourne Knights		Dandenong City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.6	3.8	2.2
	2.55	3.85	2.24	Watch
	2.85	4.12	2.12
	2.69	4.02	2.25	Watch
	2.5	3.8	2.15
	2.65	3.78	2.19	Watch
	2.55	3.85	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (3.16)	3.89 ↓ (4.41)	2.2 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Knights
34.8%

Draw
23.5%

Dandenong City
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

21%

49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

20.5%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Melbourne Knights's performance.

Dandenong City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dandenong City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Knights than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dandenong City than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dandenong City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Melbourne Knights - Dandenong City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
55', 0 - 1, Latham J. ⚽,
76', 0 - 2, Webster J. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 11 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Knights won 3.

Melbourne Knights is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Dandenong City's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Melbourne Knights has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Knights won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:11. (average 2.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Knights won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:7. (average 1.6:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Knights
Australian NPL Victoria
25.04.25	Hume City - Melbourne Knights	2:1 ✺
11.04.25	Melbourne Knights - Dandenong Thunder	0:3 ✺
04.04.25	Melbourne Knights - Preston Lions	0:1 ✺
30.03.25	Melbourne Knights - St Albans Dinamo	3:1 ✺
21.03.25	Melbourne Knights - Melbourne Victory Youth	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWL
- Dandenong City SC
Australian NPL Victoria
25.04.25	Dandenong City - Port Melbourne Sharks	5:2 ✺
11.04.25	Oakleigh Cannons - Dandenong City	3:0 ✺
04.04.25	Dandenong City - Avondale	0:3 ✺
31.03.25	South Melbourne - Dandenong City	1:3 ✺
21.03.25	Dandenong City - Heidelberg United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
15.06.24	Dandenong City - Melbourne Knights	2:5
10.03.24	Melbourne Knights - Dandenong City	2:2
20.05.22	Melbourne Knights - Dandenong City	2:1
18.02.22	Dandenong City - Melbourne Knights	0:5
30.07.21	Dandenong City - Melbourne Knights	2:0
30.04.21	Melbourne Knights - Dandenong City	1:0
21.06.19	Melbourne Knights - Dandenong City	0:2

Melbourne Knights - Dandenong City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide