Match Info

A-League - Round 12

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Elder D. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV 2 Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV 2, Vidio
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV 2
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
Philippines	SPOTV 2
Singapore	SPOTV 2
Thailand	SPOTV 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV 2


	Melbourne Victory		Western Sydney Wanderers

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.8	3.1	Watch
	2.08	3.7	3.05	Watch
	2.05	4.02	3.17	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.1
	2.08	3.91	3.4	Watch
	2.12	3.8	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.08)	3.81 ↑ (3.45)	3.14 ↓ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
45.4%

Draw
24.7%

Western Sydney Wanderers
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

26.8%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

26.7%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Western Sydney Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Western Sydney Wanderers than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.1%	3.6%	14.3%

Melbourne Victory - Western Sydney Wanderers Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Melbourne Victory (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Melbourne Victory (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Melbourne Victory will win (23 of 28 users predict this - 82.14%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.95% – 96.33%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Melbourne Victory will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 9 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Warshawsky J. (G) 16. Inserra J. 15. Esposito S. 2. Davidson J. (C) 3. Traore A. 27. D'Arrigo L. 10. Genreau D. 17. Velupillay N. 64. Mata J. 11. Clarismario 9. Vergos N.	20. Thomas L. (C) 17. Carluccio J. 19. Tongyik R. 22. Pantazopoulos A. 3. Gersbach A. 23. Kraev B. 25. Brillante J. 32. Thurgate A. 26. Borrello B. 45. Kuol A. 9. Barbarouses K.
Substitutes
30. Graskoski D. (G) 14. Grimaldi M. 4. Jackson L. 23. Jelacic K. 19. Machar Reec J. 7. Piscopo R. 28. Razmovski K.	37. Abdul-Rahman A. 24. Barrie N. 14. Cancar P. 30. Holmes J. (G) 38. Rose J. 5. Scicluna D. 8. Ugarkovic S.
Coaches
Diles A.	Stajcic A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', Davidson J. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Barbarouses K. (Penalty Awarded),
31', Traore A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Kraev B. 🟨,
67', Barbarouses K. ↓, Ugarkovic S. ↑,
73', Mata J. ↓, Piscopo R. ↑,
73', Clarismario ↓, Jelacic K. ↑,
75', Kuol A. ↓, Scicluna D. ↑,
76', Thurgate A. 🟨,
81', Velupillay N. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
88', Genreau D. ↓, Machar Reec J. ↑,
88', Inserra J. ↓, Razmovski K. ↑,
90+1', Borrello B. ↓, Abdul-Rahman A. ↑,
90+1', Brillante J. ↓, Cancar P. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 2.

Melbourne Victory is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Western Sydney is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Melbourne Victory is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Hamill B. (Knee Injury) Piscopo R. (Injury)

There will not play in Western Sydney: Cleur G. (Inactive)

We predict that Melbourne Victory will win today's game, with odds of 1.94.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 36:33. (average 1.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 2.2:1.8).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Melbourne Victory: 13.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	WS Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
02.01.26	Melbourne Victory - Perth Glory	3:2 ✺
29.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	5:1 ✺
20.12.25	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	2:1 ✺
05.12.25	Macarthur FC - Melbourne Victory	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWWWT
- Western Sydney Wanderers
Australian A-League
01.01.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Macarthur FC	0:1 ✺
27.12.25	Adelaide United - Western Sydney Wanderers	3:2 ✺
19.12.25	Western Sydney Wanderers - Auckland FC	0:2 ✺
13.12.25	Western Sydney Wanderers - Brisbane Roar	0:0 ✺
05.12.25	Perth Glory - Western Sydney Wanderers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
10.05.25	Western Sydney Wanderers - Melbourne Victory	1:2
15.03.25	Western Sydney Wanderers - Melbourne Victory	4:2
04.01.25	Melbourne Victory - Western Sydney Wanderers	2:2
27.04.24	Melbourne Victory - Western Sydney Wanderers	3:4
10.12.23	Western Sydney Wanderers - Melbourne Victory	3:4
15.04.23	Western Sydney Wanderers - Melbourne Victory	2:1
15.10.22	Melbourne Victory - Western Sydney Wanderers	0:1

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