Match Info

A-League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Keevers L. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 5
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne Victory		Sydney

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.8	3.3	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.25
	2.02	3.55	3.35	Watch
	2.07	3.9	3.46
	2.03	3.79	3.4	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.25
	2.08	3.71	3.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (2.01)	3.68 ↓ (3.75)	3.36 ↓ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
46.3%

Draw
25.6%

Sydney
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

25.3%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

25%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Sydney has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sydney than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Melbourne Victory - Sydney Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Sydney will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Warshawsky J. (G) 22. Rawlins J. 21. Roderick (C) 2. Davidson J. 18. Lino F. 10. Genreau D. 8. Valadon J. 17. Velupillay N. 64. Mata J. 11. Clarismario 44. Nduka C.	12. Devenish-Meares H. (G) 23. Grant R. (C) 41. Popovic A. 4. Courtney-Perkins J. 17. Garuccio B. 8. Kamijo W. 24. Okon-Engstler P. 44. Akon A. 20. Quintal T. 7. Quispe Cordova P. A. 80. Stamatelopoulos A.
Substitutes
27. D'Arrigo L. 25. Duncan J. (G) 15. Esposito S. 14. Grimaldi M. 23. Jelacic K. 7. Piscopo R. 9. Vergos N.	70. Arslan A. 9. Campuzano V. 1. Hoefsloot G. (G) 16. King J. 10. Lolley J. 13. Wood P. 36. Youlley R.
Coaches
Diles A.	Kisnorbo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Quintal T. ↓, Arslan A. ↑,
68', Okon-Engstler P. 🟨,
71', Clarismario ↓, Jelacic K. ↑,
77', Stamatelopoulos A. ↓, Wood P. ↑,
78', Kamijo W. 🟨,
80', 0 - 1, Wood P. ⚽,
81', Akon A. ↓, Youlley R. ↑,
84', Mata J. ↓, D'Arrigo L. ↑,
84', Nduka C. ↓, Vergos N. ↑,
84', Velupillay N. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
85', Wood P. 🟨,
89', Genreau D. ↓, Piscopo R. ↑,
90+5', Arslan A. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Sydney may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Melbourne Victory might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Inserra J. (Inactive) Reec J. (Injury)

There will not play in Sydney: Grant A. (Inactive) Lolley J. (Ankle Injury) Tisserand M. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 27:38. (average 1.4:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.6:1.7).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Sydney FC: 13.38% Melbourne Victory: 12.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Sydney FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
25.04.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Melbourne Victory	0:2 ✺
17.04.26	Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Auckland FC - Melbourne Victory	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Melbourne Victory - Central Coast Mariners	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTTLW
- Sydney FC
Australian A-League
26.04.26	Sydney - Auckland FC	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Sydney - Perth Glory	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Sydney	0:2 ✺
02.04.26	Brisbane Roar - Sydney	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Sydney - Newcastle Jets	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
07.03.26	Sydney - Melbourne Victory	2:2
26.01.26	Melbourne Victory - Sydney	4:0
22.11.25	Sydney - Melbourne Victory	3:0
24.01.25	Melbourne Victory - Sydney	2:0
28.12.24	Sydney - Melbourne Victory	3:0
26.01.24	Melbourne Victory - Sydney	1:1
16.12.23	Melbourne Victory - Sydney	3:0

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