Match Info

A-League - Round 25

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: King A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV, Vidio
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ
Philippines	SPOTV
South-korea	SPOTV
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	SPOTV
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 8
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV
World	Onefootball


	Melbourne Victory		Newcastle Jets

	1	X	2
	2.01	4.1	3.1	Watch
	2.12	3.95	2.88	Watch
	2.17	4.15	3.05
	2.07	4.15	3.08	Watch
	2	3.75	3
	2.16	4.06	3.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.93)	4.03 ↓ (4.24)	3.03 ↓ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
45.3%

Draw
23.5%

Newcastle Jets
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

22.4%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

22.3%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Newcastle Jets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle Jets than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	30%	40%

Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Newcastle will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Warshawsky J. (G) 22. Rawlins J. 15. Esposito S. 21. Roderick (C) 2. Davidson J. 10. Genreau D. 8. Valadon J. 23. Jelacic K. 17. Velupillay N. 18. Lino F. 44. Nduka C.	1. Delianov J. (G) 22. Bertolissio J. 17. Grozos K. (C) 33. Natta M. 23. Wilmering D. 8. Bayliss L. 10. Clough Z. 14. Burgess M. 13. Taylor C. 9. Rose L. 7. Adams E.
Substitutes
11. Clarismario 27. D'Arrigo L. 25. Duncan J. (G) 14. Grimaldi M. 5. Hamill B. 7. Piscopo R. 9. Vergos N.	43. Bertoncello X. 42. Cooper M. 11. Gibson B. 18. Mizunuma K. 20. Nassiep A. (G) 24. Nunes A. 41. Scicluna L.
Coaches
Diles A.	Milligan M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
15', Adams E. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Adams E. ⚽, Burgess M. (A),
25', Roderick 🟨,
31', 1 - 1, Nduka C. ⚽, Rawlins J. (A),
34', 2 - 1, Nduka C. ⚽, Lino F. (A),
44', Burgess M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Clough Z. ↓, Bertoncello X. ↑,
65', Jelacic K. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
70', Rose L. ↓, Gibson B. ↑,
81', Valadon J. ↓, D'Arrigo L. ↑,
81', Velupillay N. ↓, Clarismario ↑,
81', Taylor C. ↓, Nunes A. ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Adams E. (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', Rawlins J. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Newcastle is Qualified for A~League (Play Offs Semi~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Melbourne Victory may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Melbourne Victory will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Esposito S. (Injury) Hamill B. (Knee Injury) Mata J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Newcastle: Aquilina T. (Injury) Badolato A. (Knee Injury) Bracco C. (Knee Injury) Fryer O. (Knee Injury) Shaughnessy J. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 32:32. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 2.1:1.4).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Melbourne Victory: 13.33% Newcastle Jets: 12.08%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Melbourne Victory - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 49.31%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Newcastle Jets - the odds 3.37 are the expected chance of winning is 28.24%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
11.04.26	Auckland FC - Melbourne Victory	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Melbourne Victory - Central Coast Mariners	4:1 ✺
15.03.26	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	4:1 ✺
07.03.26	Sydney - Melbourne Victory	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TLWWT
- Newcastle Jets
Australian A-League
11.04.26	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
02.04.26	Macarthur FC - Newcastle Jets	3:2 ✺
22.03.26	Sydney - Newcastle Jets	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Newcastle Jets - Auckland FC	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Newcastle Jets - Western Sydney Wanderers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
24.10.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	5:2
04.05.25	Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets	1:1
08.02.25	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	3:0
03.02.24	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	1:1
29.10.23	Melbourne Victory - Newcastle Jets	5:3
Australian Cup
17.07.23	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	3:2 penalties
Australian A-League
11.02.23	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne Victory	2:1

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