Match Info

Victoria Premier League - Promotion - Play Offs - Final

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday


	Melbourne Victory Youth		Northcote City

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.60	2.37
	2.12	3.40	2.75
	2.24	3.55	2.36
	2.5	3.79	2.36	Watch
	2.55	3.45	2.35
	2.42	3.86	2.45
	2.35	3.55	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.3)	3.6 ↑ (3.45)	2.43 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory Youth
38%

Draw
25%

Northcote City
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

25.6%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

24.5%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory Youth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Northcote City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory Youth than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northcote City than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Melbourne Victory Youth - Northcote City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, ⚽,
27', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Extra Time (0 - 0)
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 3rd in the Promotion ~ Victoria Premier League (Promotion ~ Playoffs and 4th in the Promotion ~ Victoria Premier League (Promotion ~ Playoffs).

Victory Youth has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Northcote City have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Recently, Victory Youth has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

Victory Youth is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Victory Youth has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:7 (averaging 0.4:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Victory Youth against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 2:3 goals (averaging 0.7:1 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory Youth
Australian Victoria Premier League
11.09.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - Eltham Redbacks	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - Port Melbourne Sharks	4:0 ✺
23.08.26	Manningham United - Melbourne Victory Youth	0:3 ✺
17.08.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - Northcote City	0:1 ✺
03.08.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - Melbourne Srbija	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWLW
- Northcote City FC
Australian Victoria Premier League
11.09.26	Northcote City - Bulleen Lions	3:2 ✺
30.08.26	Bulleen Lions - Northcote City	3:1 ✺
21.08.26	Northcote City - Brunswick Juventus	1:2 ✺
17.08.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - Northcote City	0:1 ✺
31.07.26	Northcote City - Eltham Redbacks	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian Victoria Premier League
17.08.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - Northcote City	0:1
01.05.26	Northcote City - Melbourne Victory Youth	1:0
19.05.24	Melbourne Victory Youth - Northcote City	1:2
Australian NPL Victoria
28.05.16	Northcote City - Melbourne Victory Youth	3:0
19.02.16	Melbourne Victory Youth - Northcote City	1:0

Melbourne Victory Youth - Northcote City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide