Match Info

Challenge League - Round 14

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)


	Melita		Balzan

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.5	1.62	Watch
	4.62	3.74	1.57
	4.72	4.12	1.57	Watch
	5	3.4	1.6
	5.28	3.75	1.55
	4.5	3.66	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.81 ↑ (4.15)	3.7 ↓ (3.82)	1.58 ↓ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melita
18.7%

Draw
24.4%

Balzan
56.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22%

23.9%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

23.3%

55.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Balzan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melita than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Balzan than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Melita - Balzan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Yepez J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
75', 2 - 0, Yepez J. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: )).

Recent performances by Melita have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Balzan is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Balzan is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Melita won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Melita won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Melita	2	1	0	1	4:2	2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melita FC
Maltese Challenge League
01.02.26	Santa Lucia - Melita	2:2 ✺
17.01.26	Żebbuġ Rangers - Melita	1:4 ✺
11.01.26	Melita - Marsa	3:2 ✺
21.12.25	Melita - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	0:2 ✺
13.12.25	St. Andrews - Melita	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TWWLL
- Balzan FC
Maltese Challenge League
01.02.26	Balzan - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	3:0 ✺
17.01.26	St. Andrews - Balzan	0:2 ✺
10.01.26	Balzan - Vittoriosa Stars	4:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Balzan - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	1:2 penalties ✺
Maltese Challenge League
20.12.25	Santa Lucia - Balzan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
13.04.25	Balzan - Melita	3:1
01.03.25	Balzan - Melita	1:1
08.12.24	Melita - Balzan	1:0
20.10.24	Melita - Balzan	2:0

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